The Vikings upset the Saints in New Orleans in an NFC wild-card game last week, but they’ll have their hands full when they take on the top-seeded 49ers in an NFC divisional-round playoff bout Saturday afternoon in Santa Clara. Minnesota won outright as an eight-point dog last week, and it’s getting seven points for this one. How are we playing this game with our free NFL playoffs pick?
NFL Playoffs Betting Odds
NFL playoff betting odds opened San Francisco at -7 over Minnesota, with an over/under of right around 45, and both those numbers are holding steady in early betting action.
NFL Playoff Betting Preview
Minnesota advanced to this divisional round by outlasting the Saints at the Superdome Sunday 26-20 in overtime. The Vikings trailed New Orleans 10-3 late into the second quarter, then used a 17-0 run spanning the halves to lead 20-10. Minnesota then allowed the Saints to score 10 points to force OT but drove the opening possession of extra time 75 yards to a game-winning touchdown, Kirk Cousins, to Kyle Rudolph in the corner of the end zone.
The Vikings simply outplayed New Orleans; they out-gained the Saints 362-324, won the ground battle 136-97, and dominated time of possession by a 37:27 split. Running back Dalvin Cook, who missed the last two games of the regular season with a bad shoulder, returned and ran for 94 yards and two touchdowns, Cousins made several good throws, including a big one to Adam Theilen to set up the game-winning score, and the Minnesota defense harassed Drew Brees all day.
So the Vikings are back in the divisional round of the playoffs for the second time in the last three seasons.
Minnesota only ranked 16th in the NFL in total offense this season, averaging 354 yards per game, and 14th in total defense, allowing 342 YPG. The Vikings also ranked just 28th in “time of possession,” averaging 28:50 per game.
San Francisco, meanwhile, is operating with an extra week off. The 49ers are the No. 1 seed in these NFC playoffs, after winning their last two regular-season games, including that 26-21 thriller over divisional-round bound Seattle in Week 17.
The Niners led the Seahawks 19-7 through three quarters and 26-14 late, then survived a Seattle rally then fell about six inches short of sending San Francisco to the wild-card round.
San Francisco started 8-0 this season, struggled just a bit through a tough 3-3 stretch, with losses to the Seahawks and Baltimore, before winning its last two. And it’s probably a good thing that the Niners needed to win those last two games; sometimes teams that take Week 17 off, already locked into their playoff seeds, come out flat for their first playoff games.
San Francisco ranked fourth in the league in offense this season at 381 YPG, second in defense, holding foes to just 282 YPG, and fifth in time of possession at 31:37.
So the 49ers are back in the divisional round for the first time since 2013.
These teams last met back in Week 1 of last season, a 24-16 Vikings victory up in Minneapolis. But while Minnesota is still about the same team, it was that day San Francisco is definitely improved.
Cousins threw two touchdown passes that day, against zero interceptions, while the Niners’ Jimmy Garoppolo threw one TD pass against three picks.
NFL Playoff Betting Trends
- With last week’s win/cover Minnesota is 5-4 both SU and ATS on the road this season.
- With last week’s win/cover Minnesota is 2-4 both SU and ATS this season against teams that made the playoffs.
- San Francisco is 6-2 SU but only 3-4-1 ATS at home this season.
- San Francisco is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS against teams that made the playoffs this season.
Over the past five divisional-round playoff weekends, the home teams – the teams that didn’t have to play on wild-card weekend – are 16-4 SU, 11-8-1 ATS.
Totals Report
- Overs are 9-8 in Vikings games this season, which are averaging 44 total points.
- Overs are 8-7-1 in 49ers games this season, which are averaging 49 points.
- Overs are 12-8 over the last five divisional-round playoffs.
Common Opponents
These two teams played four common opponents this season; Green Bay, Atlanta, Washington, and Seattle. The 49ers played 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS against those four foes, Minnesota 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS.
- Get more details: Vikings at 49ers NFL Match up
