The Saints are one of the best teams forced to play on an NFL wild-card weekend in recent memory, heading into their playoff match-up with the Vikings Sunday afternoon at the Superdome. New Orleans won 13 games this season, but that didn’t even get them a first-round bye. The Saints are also favored by more than a touchdown. Who do we like here for our free NFL pick?
NFL Playoffs Betting Odds
NFL playoff betting odds opened New Orleans at -8 over Minnesota, with an over/under of right around 47. Early betting action then bumped that total to 49.
NFL Playoff Betting Preview
Minnesota finished 10-6 this season, good for the No. 6 spot in the NFC playoff bracket. The Vikes also played over their regular-season wins over/under, which was nine. Minnesota only started 2-2 this year, then won six of its next seven games. The Vikings later had a chance to catch Green Bay in the NFC North race but lost in Week 16 at home to the Packers 23-10. Then, locked into its playoff seed, Minnesota fell to Chicago in the regular-season finale last week 21-19.
Nonetheless, the Vikings are back in the playoffs after missing out last season.
New Orleans, meanwhile, finished 13-3 this season, good for the No. 3 spot in a tough NFC. The Saints also played over their wins betting total, which was 10.5. New Orleans started 1-1 this season, then won nine of its next ten games. A home loss, though, to San Francisco in Week 14 ultimately cost the Saints a shot at a wild-card bye. New Orleans finished with three straight victories, including a 42-10 drubbing of Carolina last week, but the 49ers’ victory over Seattle and Green Bay’s win over Detroit sent the Saints to wild-card weekend.
Still, New Orleans is back in the playoffs for the third straight season.
By the numbers, Minnesota is a rather mediocre outfit. The Vikings ranked 16th in the league in total offense this season, averaging 354 yards per game, 14th in total defense, allowing 342 YPG, and 28th in time of possession, averaging 28:50 PG.
The Saints, meanwhile, ranked ninth in total offense at 374 YPG, 11th in total defense at 333 YPG and third in “time of possession” at 32:19 PG.
These teams met most recently back in October of last season, a 30-20 Saints victory up in Minnesota. Nine months prior to that, New Orleans led the Vikings 24-23 with just a half-minute to go in an NFC divisional-round playoff game but gave up the Minneapolis Miracle and lost 29-24.
On an injury note, Minnesota RB Dalvin Cook (1,654 yards from scrimmage this season, 13 touchdowns) missed the last couple games with a sore shoulder, and while he’s listed as probable for Sunday, you’ve got to wonder how effective he might be.
NFL Playoff Betting Trends
- Minnesota is 4-4 both SU and ATS on the road this season.
- Minnesota is 1-4 both SU and ATS this season against teams that made the playoffs.
- New Orleans is 6-2 SU but only 4-4 ATS at home this season.
- New Orleans is 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS against teams that made the playoffs this season.
- New Orleans is 5-1 ATS this season when favored by single digits.
- Division champions/home teams are just 10-10 SU and 7-12-1 ATS over the past five NFL wild-card weekends.
Totals Report
- Overs are 9-7 in Vikings games this season, which are averaging 44 total points.
- Overs are also 9-7 in Saints games this season, which are averaging 50 points.
- Unders are 13-6-1 over the past five NFL wild-card weekends.
Common Opponents
These two teams played four common opponents this season; Atlanta, Chicago, Seattle, and Dallas. New Orleans played 4-1 both SU and ATS against those four teams, while Minnesota played just 2-3 both SU and ATS against those four foes.
- Get more details: Vikings at Saints NFL Wild Card Match up
