The Vikings are hot, while the Chiefs are struggling, heading into what should be a good inter-conference match-up Sunday afternoon at Arrowhead. Minnesota is getting some good play as of late from its much-maligned quarterback, while Kansas City is expected to play its second straight game without its MVP QB. How are we playing this one with our free NFL pick?
NFL Betting Odds
Week 9’s NFL betting odds opened Minnesota as a three-point favorite for this game while holding off on boarding a total, probably because of some uncertainty with Kansas City’s quarterback situation.
Vikings vs. Chiefs Set-Up
Minnesota is 6-2 on the season, owner of a four-game winning streak, after beating Washington last Thursday 19-9. The Vikings outplayed the Redskins fairly thoroughly that night but settled for four field goals and never really pulled away. They also came up short ATS as 16-point favorites.
On the night, Minnesota out-gained Washington 434-216, out-rushed the ‘Skins 161-85 and won the time of possession 37:23. They were just favored by too much.
Two weeks ago, the Vikings won at Detroit 42-30; just before that, they beat Philadelphia 38-20, and just before that, they beat the Giants 28-10. So Minnesota has won four straight by double-digits, out-gaining and out-rushing all four opponents.
At 6-2 overall, the Vikes trail division-leading Green Bay by a game and a half in the NFC North, but they also own the second NFC wild-card spot at the moment, one game clear of the Rams.
Kansas City, meanwhile, is 5-3 on the season, after falling at home to the Packers Sunday night 31-24. Playing without Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs fell behind 14-0 early but rallied to lead 17-14 late into the third quarter. Later, tied at 24, KC gave up a long Packers score on a screen pass, punted, then couldn’t get the ball back, letting Green Bay run the last five minutes off the clock.
On the night, the Chiefs got out-gained 374-337, out-rushed 118-88, and lost time of possession 33:27. They also committed the only turnover of the game, and it cost them seven points.
Two weeks ago, Kansas City won at Denver 30-6 but lost Mahomes to that knee injury. But the Chiefs lost back-to-back games before that to Indianapolis and Houston with Mahomes. KC’s also been out-gained in four of its last five games and out-rushed in six of its previous seven.
And yet, at 5-3, the Chiefs lead the AFC West by a game and a half over Oakland.
These teams met most famously back in January 1970, in Super Bowl IV, when Coach Stram’s Chiefs upset the hell out of the heavily favored Vikings 23-7. These teams met most recently back in 2015, a 16-10 Minnesota victory. Both head coaches are still around from that one, but both quarterbacks are gone.
NFL Betting Trends
- Minnesota is the most successful team in the NFL over recent seasons, going 56-29 ATS under Coach Zimmer.
- Minnesota is 14-9-1 SU, 13-10-1 ATS with Kirk Cousins at QB.
- Kansas City is 1-3 both SU and ATS at home this season.
- Moore is 15-16 SU as a starter in the NFL.
- Home teams are 42-72 ATS in the NFL this season.
- Home dogs are 14-20 ATS in the NFL this season.
Totals Report
- Unders are 5-3 in Vikings games this season, which are averaging 41 total points.
- Overs are 5-3 in Chiefs games this season, which are averaging 51 points. Also, the one game Mahomes missed played over a total of 48.
- Unders are 63-54 in the NFL this season.
- Get more details: Vikings at Chiefs NFL Match-up Stats
