It’s not exactly Joe Montana vs. Dan Marino, but it is two pretty good teams meeting in a possible Super Bowl preview when the 8-3 Dolphins take on the 7-4 49ers Sunday afternoon in Santa Clara. Miami, powered by an air-happy offense, leads the AFC East. San Francisco, anchored by a top-notch defense, leads the NFC West. Who do we like here for our free NFL betting pick?
NFL Betting Lines
The Week 13 NFL betting odds opened San Francisco as a 4.5-point home favorite for Sunday, with an over/under of right around 46.5. Early betting action then edged that line down to -4.
Dolphins-49ers NFL Betting Preview
Miami rides a five-game winning streak into Sunday after brushing off Houston last week 30-15. The Dolphins, thanks in part to a couple of early takeaways, hit the scoreboard on five of their first six possessions of the game, led 30-0 at the half, and cruise-controlled it from there for the victory and the cover as 14-point favorites. Miami out-gained the Texans 339-210, and three-quarters of the yardage the Dolphins’ defense allowed came in garbage time. The Dolphins also won the turnover battle 3-1, cashing in once on a fumble return for a score. Miami has now out-gained each of its last six opponents and out-rushed four of its last five foes. It’s also 3-1 ATS its last four times out. At 8-3 overall, the Dolphins lead the AFC East by a head-to-head tie-breaker over 8-3 Buffalo. Miami also trails 9-2 Kansas City by just one game in the battle for the best record in the AFC. But a loss Sunday could drop the Dolphins several spots. The AFC is fun to watch at the moment. San Francisco, meanwhile, owns a four-game winning streak after blanking New Orleans last week 13-0. The 49ers turned an early takeaway into the first three points of the game, led 10-0 at the half, added another field goal early in the third quarter, and eased home from there for the win and the cover at -9.5. San Francisco out-gained the Saints 317-260, dominated time of possession by a 35:25 split, and won the turnover battle 2-0, creating at least a +6 points differential. The 49ers also stopped New Orleans twice deep inside the red zone in the fourth quarter with the money on the line. The Niners have now out-gained and out-rushed each of their last four opponents, going 3-1 ATS along the way. At 7-4 overall San Francisco now leads the NFC West by one game over 6-5 Seattle. The 49ers trail 10-1 Philadelphia by three games in the battle for the best record in the NFC, and they’re also only a half-game ahead of 7-5 Washington, which sits in the No. 7 spot. On the injury front, Miami could be without both starting tackles Sunday. On the other side of this match-up, both McCaffrey and Samuel are listed as questionable for San Francisco, but we expect both to play.
Dolphins-49ers History
These teams don’t meet very often, just 14 times before, most famously in Super Bowl 19, that 38-16 San Francisco victory. But Miami is 4-1 over the last five meetings. Most recently, two seasons ago, the Dolphins won at Levi’s Stadium 43-17. Ryan Fitzpatrick, now retired, threw three touchdown passes that day for Miami, while Jimmy Garoppolo tossed two interceptions for the Niners.
- Get more details: Miami at San Francisco Week 13 Betting Stats
NFL Betting Trends
Through Week 12, home teams are 96-77 SU and 90-81 ATS in the NFL this season. Through Week 12, favorites are 109-69 SU but just 77-98 ATS in the NFL this season.
Totals Report
- The Unders are 6-5 in Dolphins games this season, averaging 49 total points per game.
- The Unders are 8-3 in 49ers games this season which are averaging 38 points.
- Through Week 12, the Unders are 103-75 in the NFL this season.
