Former SEC championship quarterbacks face off for the first time as pros when Joe Burrow and the Bengals host Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins for this week’s edition of Thursday night football betting.
Miami is 3-0 for the first time since 2018, while defending AFC champion Cincinnati is 1-2. But most of the early betting action on this game came in on the Bengals.
Which way are we going here with our free MIA/CIN pick?
NFL Betting Lines
The Week 4 NFL betting odds opened Cincinnati as a one-point favorite for Thursday night, with an over/under of right around 48.5. Early betting action then bumped the Bengals 2.5 points to -3.5 and dipped that total to 47.5.
Dolphins-Bengals NFL Betting Preview
Miami is 3-0 on this young season after beating big bad Buffalo Sunday 21-19. The Dolphins spotted the Bills the first seven points of the game but took a 14-14 tie into halftime. Miami later trailed 17-14 into the fourth quarter but used a couple of big plays to take the lead with 10 minutes later and held on by their fingernails from there for the big divisional victory.
The Dolphins also cashed in at +175 on the NFL money line.
Miami actually got out-gained by Buffalo 497-212 (!), out-rushed 115-41, and lost time of possession by a huge 41:19 split. But the Dolphins turned the only takeaway of the game into a touchdown, got a little lucky with a missed Bills field goal, and made a goal-line stand from their own 1-yard line late to preserve the W.
Miami opened this season with a 20-7 win over New England in which the offense scored 13 points. The Dolphins then came back from a 35-14 fourth-quarter deficit to beat Baltimore 42-38.
So while Miami is 3-0, it could easily be 1-2.
Then again, stretching back into last season, the Dolphins are 11-1, 10-2 ATS over their last 12 games.
Cincinnati, meanwhile, is 1-2 after winning at the Jets Sunday 27-12. The Bengals drove the opening possession of the game 75 yards to a touchdown and led 20-9 at the half. Cincinnati then turned a take-away into another touchdown early in the second half and eased home from there for the win and the cover as a 6.5-point favorite.
The Bengals out-gained New York but only 330-328 and only produced 69 yards on the ground. But they won the turnover battle 4-1, creating at least a +7 points differential.
Cincinnati opened this season with that 23-20 overtime loss to Pittsburgh, a game it should have won if not for a missed extra point. The Bengals then lost at Dallas 20-17 on a field goal at the buzzer.
So Cincy really should be 2-1.
Dolphins-Bengals History
Miami leads the all-time series with Cincinnati 18-7 and won the last two meetings, 38-35 in overtime in 2019 and 19-7 in 2020. But Thursday’s game will be the first meeting between Tagovailoa and Burrow.
- Get more details: Miami at Cincinnati Week 4 Betting Stats
NFL Betting Trends
Home teams are 25-22 SU and 24-23 ATS in the NFL this season.
Betting favorites are 26-21 SU but only 19-28 ATS in the NFL this season.
Totals Report
- The Over is 3-0 in Dolphins games this season, which are averaging 49 total points.
- The Under is 2-1 in Bengals games this season, which are averaging 40 points.
- The Under is 30-17 in the NFL this season.
