The Bills aren’t perfect this season, but with four straight victories, they now own the top spot in the AFC playoff standings. The Dolphins, meanwhile, started great this season but lost the first two games of a current three-game stretch of road bouts.
AFC East-leading Buffalo meets second-place Miami for the 118th time Saturday night in Orchard Park.
How are we playing this game with our free Mia/Buf Week 15 pick?
NFL Betting Lines
The Week 15 NFL betting odds opened Buffalo at -7.5 for Saturday night, with an over/under of right around 43.5. Early betting action then knocked the hook off that spread.
Dolphins-Bills NFL Betting Preview
Miami was looking good at 8-3 a couple of weeks ago but comes into Saturday off back-to-back defeats out in California, most recently a 23-17 decision against the Chargers last Sunday. The Dolphins fell behind 10-0 in the second quarter, pulled to within 10-7 on a heads-up Tyreek Hill touchdown but trailed 17-7 at the half. Miami then got back to within 17-14 on another long Hill touchdown in the third quarter but gave up a couple of Los Angeles field goals and could not respond in time.
The Dolphins got out-gained by the Chargers 432-219, and more than half of Miami’s yardage came on Hill’s two big plays. The Dolphins also lost time of possession by a huge 40:20 margin.
Two weeks ago, Miami lost time of possession by a 41:19 split and fell at San Francisco 33-17.
At 8-5 overall, the Dolphins now sit in the No. 6 spot in the AFC playoff standings, just one game ahead of New England, the Chargers, and the Jets.
Buffalo, meanwhile, rides a four-game winning streak into Saturday after beating the Jets at home last Sunday 20-12. That game, played in some tough weather conditions, was tied at 7-7 early in the third quarter before the Bills scored 13 straight points to go up 20-7. Buffalo allowed New York to pull back to within one score with just over a minute to go but held on for the victory.
Unfortunately for Bills backers, a late Jets field goal cost Buffalo the cover at -9.5.
The Bills only managed just 232 yards of total offense last week but won the turnover battle 2-0, creating about a +6 points differential.
Buffalo has now out-rushed each of its last five opponents.
Two weeks ago, the Bills held the Patriots to 242 total yards, won 24-10, and covered at -4. Three weeks ago, Buffalo ran the ball for 164 yards and beat Detroit 28-25. And four weeks ago, the Bills built a 28-10 lead on Cleveland and won 31-23.
At 10-3 overall, Buffalo now sits in the No. 1 spot in the AFC playoff standings, a tie-breaker up on 10-3 Kansas City.
On the injury front, both teams’ lists for this week are about a mile long, but most notably, the Bills are now without LB Von Miller for the rest of the season due to that ripped knee.
The forecast for Saturday night in Buffalo looks snowy/wet but not brutally cold. We might think such conditions would favor a team that runs the ball, but football games don’t always play out according to that idea. We favor teams that run the ball anyway.
Dolphins-Bills Recent History
Buffalo beat Miami seven times in a row from 2018-21, but the Dolphins won the first meeting between these rivals this season 21-19 back in Week 3. The Bills actually dominated play that day, out-gaining Miami 497-212 and winning time of possession 41:19. But they basically gave the Dolphins an early touchdown, then managed just three total points off four incursions into Dolphins territory in the second half.
Also, that game played way under a total of 54.
- Get more details: Miami at Buffalo Week 15 Betting Stats
Totals Report
- The Unders are 7-6 in Dolphins games this season, averaging 48 total points.
- The Unders are 10-3 in Bills games this season, averaging 44 points.
- Through Week 14, the Unders are 119-87 (58 percent) in the NFL this season.
