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Louisville Cardinals at North Carolina State Wolfpack Free Point Spread Pick – Odds

By David Schwab
Date: 05/10/2017 8:00 pm
Location: Carter-Finley Stadium
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds



Point Spread: Louisville -4
Total: 65

Thursday night football in the ACC offers up an Atlantic Division battle between the Louisville Cardinals and the North Carolina State Wolfpack North in a scheduled 8 p.m. kickoff on ESPN from Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh.

Louisville at NC State Game Overview

The Cardinals cruised to a 55-10 victory against Division IAA Murray State this past Saturday, but they could not cover the heavy 48-point spread. They are now 4-1 straight-up on the year with a 0-4-1 record against the spread after failing to cover as double-digit favorites in four straight games. The lone loss this season was to Clemson in a lopsided 47-21 defeat as three-point home underdogs.

We saw what Louisville did against the Tigers and they battled North Carolina to a PUSH as a 12-point road favorite in its only other ACC game. Behind Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson, the Cardinals are sixth in the nation in passing and 33rd running the ball, but these stats have been inflated a bit against inferior competition. There is still some concern for a defense that is tied for 57th in the nation in points allowed.

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North Carolina State lost its season opener to South Carolina as a seven-point home favorite, but it has extended its current SU winning streak to four games with Saturday’s 33-25 victory against Syracuse as a 14-point home favorite. The Wolfpack’s biggest victory of the season was a 27-21 victory against Florida State on Sept. 23 as 11.5-point underdogs on the road. They are 1-4 ATS with the total staying UNDER in their last two games.

Junior quarterback Ryan Finley has thrown for 1,403 yards and nine touchdowns against zero interceptions, but the real strength of NC State’s offense has been a deep set of running backs that have gained 841 rushing yards on 191 carries. The offense had 206 yards passing in Saturday’s win and it added another 256 yards on the ground. Defensively, the Wolfpack are allowing an average of 23.4 points a game.

Louisville at NC State Game Betting Trends

  • The Cardinals have gone 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a SU win and they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against a SU winning team. The total has gone OVER in 10 of their last 13 ACC games.
  • The Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last five Thursday games, but they have failed to cover in their last five games at home. The total has stayed UNDER in their last seven conference games.
  • Head-to-head in this ACC tilt, Louisville has won the last three meetings SU and it has a 2-1 edge ATS. The total has gone an even 1-1-1 in the three games.

Louisville Cardinals at NC State Wolfpack Week 6 NCAAF Prediction

The betting public should be all over Louisville in this game, but the real value in the betting odds is NC State getting points at home. Both teams have taken a rather easy route through the nonconference portion of their early schedule, but in a head-to-head matchup, I actually think NC State gets the overall edge in light of a better defense. Playing in front of the home-town crowd only makes the Wolfpack more attractive as underdogs. Take the four points and take the home team in this ACC clash.

Free Pick: Take Louisville -4
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