Los Angeles brings the league’s most efficient offense into Chicago for a Divisional Round matchup shaped by scoring efficiency, red-zone execution, and passing mismatches. Get our pick below.
Rams vs Bears Prediction & Advanced Efficiency Breakdown
The efficiency numbers point to a clear offensive edge for Los Angeles heading into this Divisional Round matchup. The Rams lead the NFL at 30.7 points per game and rank first in points per play (0.477). They also average 6.1 yards per play, showing consistent ability to move the ball and finish drives.
Chicago’s offense has been productive, scoring 26.2 points per game, but the efficiency drops to 0.400 points per play and 5.7 yards per play. Over a playoff game with roughly 10–12 drives per side, that gap matters. The Rams convert one point every 12.9 yards, while the Bears need 14.24 yards per point. In practical terms, Los Angeles turns field position into points more reliably.
Red-zone efficiency further separates the two teams. The Rams score touchdowns on 64.20% of red-zone trips, compared to 56.67% for Chicago. That difference often decides playoff games, where missed chances loom large.
NFL Power Comparison: Rams vs Bears
Los Angeles leads most efficiency categories. The Rams average 395.6 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play, while Chicago posts 373.4 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play. The passing game is the biggest gap. LA averages 269.6 passing yards per game with 7.8 yards per pass attempt, compared to Chicago’s 232.1 yards and 7.0 yards per attempt.
Chicago’s strength is on the ground. The Bears average 141.3 rushing yards per game and 4.8 yards per rush, both top-three marks, while the Rams sit at 126.0 rushing yards and 4.6 yards per carry. On third down, Chicago converts 43.50% of attempts, slightly ahead of LA’s 38.54%.
Even with that edge, Los Angeles remains more efficient where it counts. The Rams’ 64.20% red-zone touchdown rate outpaces Chicago’s 56.67%, and the 1.5-yard gap in yards per point shows LA finishes drives more consistently.
Rams vs Bears Efficiency Supergrid
The key mismatch sits in the passing game. Los Angeles’ top-ranked passing offense at 269.6 yards per game faces a Chicago defense allowing 232.5 passing yards per game, ranking 25th. This matchup heavily favors the Rams through the air.
The run game is more balanced. Chicago’s rushing offense (141.3 yards per game) meets a Rams defense allowing 109.3, while LA averages 126.0 rushing yards against a Bears defense that has been solid but not dominant.
Turnovers lean toward Chicago. The Bears hold a league-best +1.1 turnover margin per game, compared to +0.7 for the Rams. Chicago generates 1.8 takeaways per game while allowing just 0.7 giveaways. LA protects the ball well, with only 0.9 giveaways per game, but forces slightly fewer turnovers.
Protection metrics favor the Rams. Los Angeles allows sacks on just 3.61% of dropbacks, best in the league, while Chicago allows pressure at a higher rate. This matters against a Bears defense that relies on pressure to swing games.
Historical & Situational Betting Context
Los Angeles finished 12-6 ATS and has been an over team, going 11-7 on totals, including 8-2 to the over on the road. Chicago closed the season 12-5-1 ATS with a balanced 9-9 total record and a strong 6-3 ATS mark at home.
Recent trends show contrast. The Rams are on a seven-game over streak, while Chicago has gone over in just four of their last ten. When these teams meet in Chicago, the under has hit in four of the last six. Both teams are in good form, but their scoring profiles differ sharply.
