Two emerging quarterback talents face off for the first time in a playoff atmosphere when Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars host Justin Herbert and the Chargers for an AFC wild-card game Saturday night in Jacksonville. These teams met back in Week 3 of this season, a somewhat shocking Jaguars victory out on the West Coast. Was that game a fluke? Or can the Jags beat the Bolts twice in one season? Here’s our homework for this contest, with our free NFL betting pick.
NFL Wild-Card Betting Lines
The NFL wild-card betting odds opened the Chargers as two-point road favorites for Saturday, with an over/under of right around 47. Early betting action then dipped this game to a pick ‘em. According to Sagarin’s NFL ratings at USAToday.com, Jacksonville should be favored by one point for this match-up.
Chargers Wild-Card Betting Preview
Los Angeles started 1-2 this season, with a really bad home loss to this Jacksonville team. The Chargers then won three games in a row but struggled through a 2-4 stretch and sat at 6-6 heading into the home stretch. But Los Angeles then won four straight to clinch a wild-card berth before losing its meaningless season finale last week at Denver 31-28. So the Chargers are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2018, and for the first time with young QB Herbert. Los Angeles was locked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC going into last week’s game but played most of its starters most of the game. Whether that was a good idea is still up for debate. Prior to last week’s loss, the Chargers had out-gained each of their previous four opponents.
Jaguars Wild-Card Betting Preview
The Jaguars, meanwhile, started 2-6 this season and still sat at 4-8 heading into the stretch. But the Jags then won their last five in a row, coming from way back to win the AFC South by beating Tennessee last Sunday 20-16. So Jacksonville is back in the playoffs for the first time since 2017 and the first with young QB Lawrence. The Jaguars appeared on the verge of blowing their big chance last week against the Titans, producing just about nothing offensively trailing a shorthanded Tennessee team in crunch time. But the Jags got a gift fumble return for a touchdown with three minutes left and hung on. Jacksonville out-gained four of its last five opponents and out-rushed three of its last four foes. These two teams just met back in Week 3 of this season, a 38-10 Jaguars romp out at SoFi Stadium. Jacksonville, a six-point dog against a banged-up Los Angeles team, scored the first 13 points of the game, eventually ran the ball for 151 yards, and dominated time of possession by a 38:22 split. Our guess is Saturday night’s game plays out a little closer. Also, that game sneaked over a total of 46 when the Jags tacked on a meaningless score with five minutes left.
Common Opponents
These two teams played six common opponents this season; the Raiders, Chiefs, Broncos, Colts, Texans, and Titans. The Chargers played those foes to 5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS, and +19 yards per game, Jacksonville to 5-4 SU, 4-4-1 ATS, and +2 YPG.
- Get more details: Chargers at Jaguars Wildcard Betting Stats
NFL Wild-Card Betting Trends
- Los Angeles played 1-5 SU but 4-2 ATS vs. teams that made the playoffs this season, losing two close games to Kansas City and another to San Francisco.
- Jacksonville played 3-3 SU, 3-2-1 ATS vs. playoff teams this season.
- Over the last five NFL wild-card rounds, the home teams are just 11-13 SU, 8-16 ATS.
- Over the last five NFL wild-card rounds, the favorites are 13-11 SU, just 8-16 ATS.
Totals Report
The Unders played 10-7 in Chargers games this season, which averaged 46 total points. The Unders played 9-8 in Jaguars games this season, which averaged 44 points. The Unders are 16-8 over the last five NFL wild-card rounds.
