It’s a rematch of a classic AFC championship from last season when the Patriots host the Chiefs Sunday afternoon in Foxboro. New England won that game last January as a short dog in Kansas City, so the Chiefs go looking for revenge as a short dog for this one. Who do we like here for our free NFL pick?
NFL Betting Odds
Week 14’s NFL betting odds opened New England at -3.5 over KC, with an over/under of 50. Early betting action then dipped the Patriots to -3 and the total to 49.
Chiefs vs. Patriots Set-Up
Kansas City is 2-0 both SU and ATS since taking that loss at Tennessee last month. The Chiefs followed that up with a 24-17 win over the Chargers, covering as six-point favorites, then, after a week off, pounded Oakland last week 40-9, covering at -10.
KC led the Raiders 7-0 after one quarter, 21-0 at the half and 31-0 before allowing Oakland to finally hit the board with a field goal early in the fourth quarter, on its way to some easy money.
On the day, the Chiefs got out-gained by the Raiders 332-259 and lost time of possession by a 32:28 split. But Kansas City won the turnover battle 3-0, creating a plus-14 points differential, and did not commit a single penalty.
The Chiefs also got out-gained by the Chargers their previous time out by 128 yards but won the turnover battle 4-1, creating at least a plus-13 point differential.
Unfortunately, teams cannot depend upon turnover margins of +3 every week.
At 8-4 overall, KC leads the AFC West by two games and the head-to-head tie-breaker over Oakland. But the Chiefs are also two games behind Baltimore and New England in the battle for first-round byes in the upcoming AFC playoffs.
The Patriots, meanwhile, are just 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS over their last four games, after falling at Houston last week 28-22. New England took an early 3-0 lead on the Texans but gave up the next 21 points of the game. The Patriots trailed 28-9 late into the fourth quarter before scoring twice to create a slightly misleading final score.
On the night New England actually out-gained Houston 448-276, out-rushed the Texans 145-52, made 29 first downs to 16 for Houston and won the time of possession by a 35:25 split. But they also settled for a very short field goal, committed the game’s only turnover, which led to a Texans touchdown and failed on a 4th-and-1 inside Houston territory at a key moment in the third quarter.
Two weeks ago, New England beat Dallas 13-9; just before that, they beat Philadelphia 17-10, but three back they lost at Baltimore 37-20.
At 10-2 overall, the Patriots lead Buffalo by a game and a tiebreaker in the AFC East. They also own the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoff standings, trailing the No. 1 Ravens by that head-to-head tiebreaker.
Chiefs-Patriots Recent History
These teams have met four times over the last five seasons, twice in the playoffs, New England winning three of four games. Last January, in the AFC championship battle at Arrowhead, these teams combined to score 38 points in the fourth quarter, then went to overtime, where the Patriots won it 37-31 on a touchdown on the first possession.
New England out-gained KC that day 524-290 and won the time of possession by a 44:21 split.
Also, that game, which was only 17-7 through three quarters, played over a total of 56.
NFL Betting Trends
- Kansas City is 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS on the road this season.
- Kansas City is 20-7 SU, 16-10-1 ATS with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback.
- New England is 5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS at home this season.
- New England is 0-2 ATS this season when favored by three points or less.
Totals Report
- Overs are 7-5 in Chiefs games this season, which are averaging 51 total points.
- Unders are 8-4 in Patriots games this season, which are averaging just 39 points.
- Get more details: Kansas City at New England NFL Match-up Stats
