It’s a rematch of a recent Super Bowl when the 4-2 Chiefs head West to take on the 3-3 49ers in Santa Clara Sunday afternoon. Kansas City came from behind to beat San Francisco in the Super Bowl three seasons ago, and it’s favored by a field goal on the road for Sunday. Which way are we going here with our free NFL betting pick?
NFL Betting Lines
The Week 7 NFL betting odds opened Kansas City as a two-point road favorite for Sunday, with an over/under of right around 47.5. Betting action has dropped trhe line to -1.5 at most betting shops and the total has edged up to 49.
Chiefs-49ers NFL Betting Preview
Kansas City is 4-2 on the season after falling at home to Buffalo last Sunday, 24-20. The Chiefs led that game 7-3 early and 20-17 late but gave up a Bills touchdown with just under a minute to go to fall behind. Then, unlike that epic AFC playoff game of last January, KC came up empty on its last-gasp drive as QB Mahomes threw an interception two plays in. The Chiefs also came up short against the spread as three-point home dogs. Kansas City got out-gained by Buffalo 443-387, got out-rushed 125-68, and lost the turnover battle 2-1. The Chiefs have now been out-gained by three of their last five opponents and out-rushed by three of their last four foes. They’re also 1-4 ATS their last five times out. San Francisco, meanwhile, is 3-3 on the season after falling at Atlanta last Sunday 28-14. The 49ers, favored by 3.5 points, gave up the first 14 points of the game and rallied to tie the score at 14-14 but trailed 21-14 at the half. The Niners then came up totally empty offensively in the second half and lost. San Fran actually out-gained the Falcons 346-289 but got out-rushed 168-50, lost time of possession by a 33:27 split, and lost the turnover battle 3-0, one of which resulted in an Atlanta touchdown. The 49ers have now out-gained each of their six opponents this season and out-rushed four of their six foes. But turnovers proved costly in all three of their losses.
Chiefs-49ers Recent History
These two teams last met three seasons ago in the Super Bowl, that 31-20 Kansas City victory. San Francisco actually led that game 20-10 midway through the fourth quarter when the Chiefs scored three touchdowns in five minutes to steal the victory. What’s changed since that day? Not all that much, really. The coaches and quarterbacks are the same, the defenses are about the same, and each team’s place in their respective conferences is about the same.
- Get more details: Kansas City at San Francisco Week 7 Betting Stats
NFL Betting Trends
- Home teams are 49-42 SU and 44-45 ATS in the NFL this season.
- Favorites are 56-37 SU and 39-51 ATS in the NFL this season.
- Home dogs are 17-23 SU and 22-17 ATS in the NFL this season.
Totals Report
- The totals are split 3-3 in Chiefs games this season, which are averaging 55 total points.
- The Unders are 5-1 in 49ers games this season, averaging just 34 points.
- After going 10-4 last week, the Unders are 58-35 in the NFL this season. However, that seems like a lean due for a correction.
