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Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos Betting Odds – Free Pick

By David Schwab
Date: 27/11/2016 8:30 pm
Location: Sports Authority Field at Mile High
TV: NBC Sports Network

Betting Odds



Point Spread: Denver -3
Total: 39.5

A key matchup in the AFC West Division title race highlight’s Sunday Night Football in Week 12 with the Kansas City Chiefs going on the road to face the Denver Broncos. Kickoff from Sports Authority Field at Mile High is slated for 8:30 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on NBC.

Kansas City at Denver Game Overview

The Chiefs are licking their wounds following a stunning 19-17 loss to Tampa Bay last week as seven-point home favorite. This snapped a straight-up five-game winning streak while going 3-2 against the spread. The net result for the year is a 7-3 record (4-6 ATS) through their first 10 games that has them one game back in the AFC West standings. The total stayed UNDER 45 points in that loss and it has stayed UNDER in their last six games.

Even in earlier victories against Jacksonville at home and Carolina on the road Kansas City has had some major issues on offense scoring points. It is ranked 19th in the NFL in scoring with 22.2 points a game, but this number has dropped to 18.7 points over its last three games. Fortunately the Chiefs’ defense continues to play at a high level. This unit is ranked seventh in the league in points allowed (18.7) despite falling all the way to 25th in yards allowed (373.7).

Denver (7-3 SU and ATS) is coming off a bye and looking forward to playing this game at Mile High. After losing to Oakland and squeezing past New Orleans in two road games before last week’s break, the Broncos return home where they are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games and 6-1 ATS in their last seven. They are 4-2 ATS this season when closing as favorites and the total has stayed UNDER in five of their last seven games.

This is another team that is heavily carried by its defense. With Trevor Siemian at quarterback, Denver is ranked 23rd in the NFL in passing with 227.3 yards a game. With rookie Devontae Booker now leading the running game, it only improves to 22nd in average rushing yards (97.4). On the other side of the ball, the Broncos come into this game ranked fourth in yards allowed (318.0) and ninth in points allowed (18.9).

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Kansas City at Denver Game Betting Trends

  • The Chiefs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games and they have covered in five of their last seven games in November. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six conference games.
  • The Broncos are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight home games, but they have failed to cover in four of their last five games against the AFC West. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six games coming off a bye.
  • Head-to-head in this heated division rivalry, the road team has covered ATS in the last five meetings and the total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in the last five meetings in Denver.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos Prediction

Sunday night’s division matchup at Sports Authority Field is shaping up to be a grinder between two of the stingiest defenses in the league. Neither team has played all that well on offense lately so I would not look to either one to suddenly have a breakout game putting points on the board.

The oddsmakers have acted accordingly with a such a low total line (39.5), but I still cannot see final score adding up to 40 points or more so I am still going with the UNDER as my “best bet” pick.

Free Pick: Take the Under 39.5
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