Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens Point Spread – Free NFL Pick

By Jeff Scott
Date: 20/12/2015 1:00 pm
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Betting Odds

Point Spread: Chiefs -7.5
Total Line: 41.5

Kansas City won their 7th-straight game last week with a 10-3 victory over San Diego. Baltimore got chewed up by Seattle at home on Sunday, losing 35-6.

The Chiefs rely on their running game and timely passes to move the ball on offense. As bad as the Ravens defense has been at times this season, they have done reasonably well vs. the run (99.5 ypg). Kansas City averages 123.5 ypg on the ground and has stuck to their run-first scheme even after the loss of RB Jamaal Charles (IR). RB Charcandrick West has been the featured back during Charles’ absence but RB Spencer Ware has eaten into his carries in recent weeks. Ware’s ypc average is more than 2 yards better than West’s so look for his presence to be felt in this contest. QB Alex Smith had his interception-free streak end at 311 last week but he is still a master at protecting the ball. While he doesn’t take a lot of chances, he should do well against a secondary that has been abused a lot this year (5 TD passes allowed last week, 27 on the year). WR Jeremy Maclin gives him a legitimate threat on the outside freeing up TE Travis Kelce to do damage underneath. WR Albert Wilson, like Ware, is another player getting more reps and producing.

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Baltimore used QB Jimmy Clausen last week as QB Matt Schaub wasn’t available. If healthy, Schaub should start. He’s had a rough go in his Ravens career as his pick six was the difference in a loss to Miami 2 weeks ago. He’ll face a pass rush that may be augmented by the return of OLB Justin Houston (check status). LT Eugene Monroe has been placed on IR meaning little-used OT James Hurst will be starting. OLBs Tamba Hali and Dee Ford are solid pass rushers as well, so Schaub will have to make quick decisions throwing to a depleted receiving corps. Rookie RB Javorius Allen has been the starter since RB Justin Forsett was placed on IR. He averages less than 4.0 ypc and hasn’t reached the end zone yet but he’ll be counted on to be productive against one of the top run defenses in the league.

Consensus Picks

Chiefs 77% Under 65%

Free Kansas City at Baltimore ATS Pick

Kansas City, like the Jets, controls their own fate on the road to the playoffs. They host the Browns and Raiders in the next 2 weeks and can’t afford to overlook the Ravens. Under HC John Harbaugh, Baltimore always plays hard but they are very limited right now. I expect the Chiefs to control the clock with their ground game and quick-passing attack. The Ravens are -12 in TOs while KC is +12 and I look for the Chiefs to convert some TOs into points and to get a tough cover on the road.

Free Pick: Take the Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 - JS
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