Jacksonville was done in by 2 special teams TDs in a 27-17 loss to the Rams last Sunday. Indianapolis was a 36-22 loser to Tennessee on Monday night.
The Jaguars offense works best when rookie RB Leonard Fournette is getting 20-25 carries per game. Expect that this week against a Colts defense that allows 4.1 ypc. Fournette ran for 130 yards against the Rams and is aided by RB Chris Ivory, who is averaging 4.0 ypc himself. Ivory also became a weapon in the passing game last week as he hauled in 9 passes for 74 yards and a TD. QB Blake Bortles isn’t setting any passing records but he has been able to cut down on his TOs in 2017 (5 INTs, 1 lost fumble) but must be wary of a Colts defense that has picked off 7 passes. Indy allows 296 ypg through the air so WRs Allen Hurns and Marqise Lee should be able to make plays downfield. Fournette has also been a reliable target and ranks 4th on the team with 15 receptions. Bortles has been sacked only 10 times through 6 games while the Colts have mustered 12 sacks in 6 games.
Indianapolis doesn’t do a lot of positive things on offense in the absence of QB Andrew Luck but look for them to try and establish the run this week. They average only 97.5 ypg on the ground but Jacksonville is allowing 5.2 ypc and 145.7 ypg on the ground. RB Frank Gore is averaging only 3.4 ypc so look for rookie RB Marlon Mack (4.8 ypc) to get more carries this week. The Jaguars pass defense has been elite in 2017 (166 ypg) and they have shut down all opposing WRs (except Steelers WR Antonio Brown). They have given up only 4 passing TDs and picked off 10 passes. WR T.Y. Hilton is a legitimate deep threat but he’ll have limited opportunities to make big plays this week. QB Jacoby Brissett has been merely fair as a starter but has rushed for 3 TDs. Indy has given up 18 sacks while the Jaguars defense has accumulated 23 sacks, 13 in the last 5 games.
Public Money Consensus
In this NFL Week 7 matchup between Jacksonville and Indianapolis have the public leaning slightly to the Jags to cover the 3 points at home with 65%. The over/under bettors are thinking this game will go over the posted total line of 43.5 with 60% on board.
