Jacksonville won their 3rd-straight game last Sunday, a 20-17 OT victory over the Chargers. Cleveland remained winless after a 38-24 defeat at the hands of Detroit last week.
The Jaguars average 163 ypg on the ground so it’s no secret what their game plan will be this Sunday. Rookie RB Leonard Fournette has been everything the team was hoping for when they drafted him this year and RBs Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon have performed well when called upon. The Browns run defense has been stout in 2017 (86.4 ypg, 3.1 ypc) but they haven’t faced a run game this good all season. QB Blake Bortles continues to hold down the fort at QB, averaging only 1 TO per game. While that may not be acceptable for most QBs in the league, it’s real progress in Jacksonville. Cleveland allows 230.6 ypg through the air and has surrendered 19 TD passes to 6 interceptions. Bortles should be able to connect with WRs Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns but look for TE Marcedes Lewis to be a bigger part of the game plan. The Browns have been woeful defending the TE position and while Lewis only has 12 catches on the year, 4 have been for scores.
Cleveland has done a better job in recent weeks in trying to establish the run and will look to take advantage of a Jacksonville defense that has given up 120.7 ypg and 4.6 ypc in 2017. However, despite RB Isaiah Crowell’s improved play of late, I expect the Jags to crowd the line and make rookie QB DeShone Kizer try to consistently move the ball down the field via the pass. Jacksonville ranks 1st in the NFL in scoring defense, defending the pass and sacks. With LT Joe Thomas on IR and RT Shon Coleman iffy due to a concussion (check status), I expect DEs Calais Coleman, Yannick Ngakoue and Dante Fowler (23 combined sacks) to be a real problem in the Browns backfield. The Jaguars have also picked off 11 passes while giving up only 6 TD passes. WR Corey Coleman returns this week after a hand injury suffered in Week 2 but he isn’t an established player at this point in his career. Kizer has thrown 12 picks and lost 2 fumbles and has a QB rating of only 54.4.
Public Money Consensus
In this Week 11 NFL matchup between Jacksonville and Cleveland have the public heavily leaning to the Jags to cover the 8 point spread with over 70%. The over/under bettors are thinking this game will go over the posted total line of 37 with just over 50% on board.
