The last two No. 1 picks in the NFL draft meet up when Joe Burrow’s Bengals host Trevor Lawrence and his Jaguars for this week’s edition of Thursday night football. Cincinnati is coming off a rivalry victory over Pittsburgh last week, while Jacksonville is looking to halt an 18-game losing skid.
The Bengals are favored by a touchdown and a hook for this one; how are we playing this game with our TNF Week 4 pick?
NFL Betting Lines
The Week 4 NFL betting odds opened Cincinnati at -7 over Jacksonville, with an over/under of right around 46. Early betting action then tagged that spread with a hook and dipped that total to 45.5 but can be found at Bovada at 46.
Jaguars Betting Preview
In its first season under another new head coach and with the rookie starting quarterback, Jacksonville is 0-3 after losing at home to Arizona last week 31-19. The Jaguars fell behind 7-0 midway through the first quarter but used a 109-yard return of a missed Cardinals field goal for a touchdown on the last play of the first half to lead 13-7 into the locker room. Jacksonville later led 19-10 late into the third quarter but gave up the last 21 points of the game, seven on a Lawrence pick-6, to not only lose the game but piss away the cover as an eight-point home dog.
The Jags got out-gained by Arizona 407-361, and while they out-rushed the Cardinals 159-91, they also lost the turnover battle 4-1, resulting in at least a -13 points differential.
Jacksonville opened this season with a 37-21 loss at Houston, and that game wasn’t even that close. The Jaguars then lost to Denver 23-13, and one of their touchdowns came on a kick-off return. Jacksonville has scored just five offensive touchdowns through its first three games of this season.
Bengals Betting Preview
Cincinnati, meanwhile, is 2-1 on the season after beating the Steelers in Pittsburgh last week, 24-10. The Bengals drew first blood on a Burrow TD pass late in the first quarter, then took the lead for good on another Burrow scoring toss late in the second to lead 14-7 at the half. Cincy then scored the first 10 points out of the locker room and held on from there for its first win in the Steel City since 2015.
The Bengals actually got out-gained by Pittsburgh 342-268 and lost time of possession by a 35:25 split but won the turnover battle 2-1, creating a +14 points differential.
Cincinnati opened this season with a 27-24 overtime victory over Minnesota, then lost a challenging 20-17 game at Chicago. The Bengals are playing against a season wins over/under of 6.5, and right now, we can see them easily playing over that total and possibly contending for a playoff spot.
More Picks: Panthers vs. Cowboys Pick Against the Spread 10/3/21
Jaguars-Bengals Recent History
These teams just met back in Week 4 of last season, a 33-25 Cincinnati win at Paul Brown Stadium. The Bengals, with Burrow at QB, actually trailed the Jags, quarterbacked by Gardner Minshew that day, 13-10 at the half but scored the first 17 points of the second half for the win and the cover as one-point favorites.
Also, that game played over a total of 50.
- Get more details: Jags at Bengals 9/30/21 Match-up Stats
NFL Betting Trends
- Home teams are just 23-24 SU, 20-27 ATS in the NFL this season.
- Favorites are 27-21 SU, 18-30 ATS in the NFL this season.
Totals Report
Unders are 2-1 in Jaguars games this season, which are averaging 48 total points.
Unders are 2-1 in Bengals games this season, which are averaging 41 points.
Unders are 28-20 in the NFL this season.
