Indianapolis lost a key battle with Houston last week, 16-10. Miami lost for the 4th time in 5 outings last Sunday, falling 30-14 to San Diego.
The Colts have scored only 36 points over their current 3-game losing streak. The passing game just hasn’t produced as QB Matt Hasselbeck has been dealing with several injuries. He has big-play targets at his disposal and faces a defense that has allowed 264.7 passing yards per game. Hasselbeck bemoaned the fact after last week’s game that the team wasn’t more ‘aggressive’. Look for that to change this week as the Colts need to win this game to keep their playoff hopes alive. Miami has also struggled in run defense meaning RB Frank Gore can expect to be utilized more in this game. He has only 226 carries on the year so he should still be fresh.
Miami’s offense has averaged 16 points per game over their past 8 games (2 wins). QB Ryan Tannehill has regressed after a breakthrough 2014 season. His inconsistent play has hurt the passing game but he has clicked with WR Jarvis Landry. The 2nd-year wideout has 98 receptions but only 4 TD catches. No other player has more than 43 catches. The Colts have only 25 sacks on the year but Tannehill has been dropped 38 times on the year. RB Lamar Miller has been the starter all year and averages 4.9 ypc. However, he was benched last week in favor of rookie RB Jay Ajayi. The rookie played well and it’s unknown who will get the bulk of the carries this week. Indy ranks 25th in run defense and will need to play well up front to keep the ground game from dictating the action.
Dolphins 54% Over 58%
Free Indianapolis at Miami ATS Pick
Neither of these teams is playing well right now but the Colts still have a legitimate shot at the playoffs. Miami’s season ended several weeks ago. In their last 6 losses the Dolphins are allowing an average of 32 ppg. Indy was routed by Pittsburgh and Jacksonville before last week’s tough loss. If the Colts open up the offense, they should be able to make plays against a team that is just waiting for the season to end.
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