Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Pick

The Houston Texans come to Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday for an AFC Divisional Playoff matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs. After having last week off, the Chiefs look to start their postseason push after a strong finish to the season where they won their previous six games. The Texans had it tough on Wild Card weekend, overcoming a 16-0 deficit to beat the Bills in overtime, 22-19. And after watching Deshaun Watson show a winning flair in overtime to win the game, maybe Houston isn’t the lost cause in this spot that some may believe. Helping their cause is the fact that in week 6, the Texans came into Arrowhead, posing a 31-24 win.

Houston Better on Field Than Paper

A look at what exists on paper might tell part of the story but might fail to capture the essence of the true level of menace the Texans represent. You see an offense that is a middling force, ranked 14th in points scored this season. You also see a defense ranked 28th in total yards allowed. It’s quite unusual to see a playoff game-winning team that has actually been outscored this season as a whole.

Still, their ceiling is high. Getting JJ Watt back seemed to enliven the defense, which played very well lately. It gets a lot tougher this week against this KC offense, but they showed they could play according to the urgency of the situation, and that could serve them well in this elevated context. They have a varied run game with Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson. Getting Will Fuller (probable) back could help, and a more-active DeAndre Hopkins would go a long way. Granted, a repeat of their performance last week would be disastrous here, as they can’t afford a sleepy first-half against this opponent. But with a Houston team like this that has played with a wide range of form all season, you can’t be too sure what you will see.

KC Peaking at Right Time?

For a large part of the season, we saw a Chiefs team that failed to excite. As the season closed, however, six straight wins were enough to put the Chiefs near the top of the conference. The offense may not be quite what it was last season, but it’s still pretty darned good. The run-game doesn’t excite, but it sets up the pass, and their backs are good at catching short passes. Throw weapons into the mix like two of the best in the business in Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, along with Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, and others, and it’s a lot of tools for Patrick Mahomes to wield. That’s especially true against a Houston pass-defense that was among the worst in the conference this season.

Week 6 was so long ago at this point, it’s iffy how much it truly matters. The Chiefs were in the middle of their down-period of the season when a compromised Mahomes was struggling, along with a defense that appeared to be disintegrating. After the Chiefs ran out to an early 10-0 lead, the Texans took over. Even with two picks from Watson, they still managed to win. And while it’s comforting to Houston backers to see this result, I’m not sure how much it impacts this situation. Both teams have played with different forms this season and too much has changed since then to make that first result a guiding light for this game.

Key Factors

It would be one thing if it were only the offense that had improved for the Chiefs. But in their 6-game win streak to end the season, the Chiefs gave up a total of only 70 points. The run-defense is still an issue, and Houston can do damage in that regard. But the secondary has been playing a lot better, making a lot of plays while also being a lot stouter coming down the stretch. And when a team has a better aerial attack by a fair margin and the same can be said on the defensive side of the ball, it counts for something.