Led by their MVP-candidate quarterback, the Ravens are the hottest team in the NFL at the moment, riding a five-game winning streak, which includes three straight covers. This week Baltimore hosts what should be a great battle between two dynamic young QB’s when the Texans come to town Sunday afternoon. How are we playing this game with our free NFL pick?
NFL Betting Odds
Week 11’s NFL betting odds opened Baltimore at -4 for this game, with an over/under of right around 51. Early betting action then bumped the Ravens to -4.5.
Texans vs. Ravens Set-Up
Houston owns a mini two-game winning streak, after beating Jacksonville in London a couple of weeks ago 26-3. The Texans then enjoyed last week off. Houston scored the first nine points of the game against the Jaguars, led 9-3 at the half, then won the second half 17-0 for the W and the cash as a one-point favorite. For the day, the Texans out-gained Jacksonville 410-356, out-rushed the Jags 216-74, held a 33:27 edge in time of possession and won the turnover battle 4-1. Houston also had the refs on its side at a couple of key moments. Three weeks ago, the Texans beat Oakland 27-24; the Raiders have won two straight since.
Houston also has out-gained each of its last five opponents and out-rushed their previous six foes. At 6-3 overall, the Texans lead the AFC South by one game over second-place Indianapolis. Baltimore, meanwhile, owns a five-game winning streak, after slapping Cincinnati last week 49-13. The Ravens drove their opening possession of the game 75 yards to a touchdown, led 28-3 in the second quarter and rolled on from there for the easy win and the cover as 11-point favorites. The stat sheet says Baltimore out-gained the Bengals, but only by a margin of 379-307, and lost time of possession by a 36-24 split. But the Ravens offense scored touchdowns on its first five meaningful possessions of the game, and the defense added two scores. Two weeks ago, Baltimore beat previously unbeaten New England 37-20, and just before that, they won at Seattle 30-16. The Ravens have also out-gained four of their last five opponents and out-rushed five of their previous six foes. At 7-2 overall, Baltimore leads the AFC North by two games over second-place Pittsburgh. The Ravens also own the No. 2 spot in the AFC standings, one game behind the top-seeded Patriots, and they hold the head-to-head tie-breaker. Also, the Ravens lead the Texans by one game in the battle for that No. 2 spot, so Sunday’s game could decide where a playoff match-up is played sometime in January. These teams last met two seasons ago, a 23-16 Baltimore victory. Joe Flacco quarterbacked the Ravens that day, while Tom Savage played in place of an injured Deshaun Watson.
NFL Betting Trends
- Houston is 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS on the road this season.
- Baltimore is 3-1 SU but only 1-3 ATS at home this season.
- Houston is 20-11 SU, 17-11-3 ATS with Watson at quarterback.
- Baltimore is 13-3 SU but only 8-8 ATS with Lamar Jackson at QB.
Totals Report
Unders are 5-4 in Texans games this season, even though they’re averaging a decent 48 total points.
Overs are 6-3 in Ravens games this season, which are averaging 54 points.
Unders are 73-71 so far this NFL betting season, but overs are 17-10 the last two weeks.
- Get more details: Houston at Baltimore NFL Match-up Stats
