Houston fell to Indianapolis 20-14 last Sunday. Los Angeles obliterated the Giants 51-17 last week.
The Texans’ offense looks a whole lot different with QB Tom Savage under center. After 5-straight games scoring 33, 57, 34, 33 and 38 points, they fell to a measly 14 points vs. one of the poorer defenses in the league. Savage is 26-57 (45.6%) for the year and is clearly having difficulty finding his receivers. The Rams allow an average of 205 passing ypg, so I don’t expect the passing game to catch fire this week despite the big year WR DeAndre Hopkins is having (51-692-8). Savage has also been sacked 9 times in 2 starts and faces a defense that has 25 sacks on the season. The running game has been successful with QB Deshaun Watson as the starter but look for opponents to start crowding the line and force Savage to consistently make plays with his arm. LA’s run defense has been subpar in 2017 so I look for them to show several 8-man fronts in an effort to contain RBs Lamar Miller and rookie D’Onta Foreman.
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Everything is clicking for the Rams on offense. QB Jared Goff looks like a totally different player this season and sports a 13-4 TD/INT ratio. He also throws for an average of 254 ypg. Houston has given up 16 TD passes on the year and their pass rush is missing DE J.J. Watt and OLB Whitney Mercilus. Goff has been sacked only 10 times in 2017. RB Todd Gurley is having a big bounce-back year (161-686-7) and look for him to get 20+ carries in this game. The Texans have held opponents to an average of 96 ypg on the ground but they can’t overplay the run against this dangerous passing attack. In their last 5 wins, Los Angeles has scored 41, 35, 27, 33 and 51 points. Once they get a lead, they aren’t shy about going for more points.
Public Money Consensus
In this week 10 game of the NFL between Houston and Los Angeles have the public heavily favoring the home Rams to cover the 11-point spread with over 80%. The over/under bettors are less confident on the outcome but are slightly on the game going over the posted total line of 46 with just over 50%.
