Kansas City is 4-1 straight up, 3-2 against the spread over its last five meetings with Houston, although none of those games involved both Patrick Mahomes and DeShaun Watson. The two highly regarded members of the quarterback class of 2017 meet for the first time when the Chiefs host the Texans Sunday afternoon at Arrowhead. Who do we like here for our free NFL pick?
NFL Betting Odds
Week 6 NFL betting odds opened Kansas City at -7 over Houston, with an over/under of 54. Early betting action then dropped that line three points, to -4, and bumped the total to 55.
Texans vs. Chiefs Set-Up
Houston is 3-2 on the season, after outscoring Atlanta last week 55-32. The Texans, favored by a point and a half, actually spotted the Falcons the first seven points of the game and trailed at the half 17-16. But Houston drove the opening possession of the second half 75 yards to a touchdown for the lead and later pulled away with a pair of insurance scores in the last two minutes.
For the day, the Texans racked up 592 yards of total offense, as Watson threw for 426 and five touchdowns without a pick. Houston also out-rushed Atlanta 166-57 and scored a defensive TD.
The Texans opened their season with a very tough loss at New Orleans, then beat Jacksonville, and the Chargers then lost a tough game to Carolina. So Houston is 1-1 both SU and ATS against teams with winning records right now.
Kansas City, meanwhile, is 4-1, after taking its first loss of the season last week, 19-13 at home to Indianapolis. The Chiefs scored the first three points of the game and led 10-7 in the second quarter but got outscored from there 12-3 and lost outright as 10-point favorites.
On the night, KC got out-gained by the Colts 331-324, out-rushed 180-36, lost time of possession 37-23, committed 125 yards worth of penalties, lost a fumble just outside the Indianapolis red zone and failed on a critical 4th-and-1 in the fourth quarter. It was also the first time in 26 regular-season games the Chiefs scored fewer than 26 points.
Kansas City opened its season with wins at Jacksonville, at Oakland, over Baltimore, and in Detroit. So the Chiefs have already played four games against teams with winning records at the moment, going 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS.
Texans-Chiefs Recent History
Kansas City, as mentioned above, is 4-1 SU over the last five meetings with Houston, 3-2 ATS. Most recently, the Chiefs beat the Texans 42-34 back in October of two seasons ago. Alex Smith quarterbacked KC to victory that day against Watson, who in his fourth career NFL start threw five touchdown passes.
NFL Betting Trends
- Houston is 17-10 SU, 15-9-3 ATS with Watson as the starter at quarterback.
- Houston is 5-3-2 ATS over its last ten games on the road.
- Kansas City is 17-5 SU, 13-8-1 ATS, with Mahomes as the starter at QB.
- So far, in this NFL season, home teams are just 26-48 ATS, and favorites are only 32-43 ATS. But those do seem like trends due for corrections.
Totals Report
- Unders are 3-2 in Texans games this season, which are averaging 48 total points.
- Overs are 3-2 in Chiefs games this season, which are averaging 52 points.
- Unders are 42-36 in the NFL this season.
- Get more details: Texans at Chiefs NFL Match-up Stats
