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Houston Texans at Denver Broncos Odds – ATS Prediction

By David Schwab
Date: 24/10/2016 8:30 pm
Location: Mile High
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds



Point Spread: Denver -7
Total: 40.5

Monday night’s matchup in Week 7 of the NFL season pits the 4-2 Houston Texans against the 4-2 Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Game time is set for 8:30 p.m. (ET) and it will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.

Houston at Denver Game Overview

It has been an up and down ride for the Texans so far with big wins against Kansas City and Indianapolis at home combined with bad losses on the road to New England and Minnesota. The net result is a straight-up 4-2 mark while going 3-2-1 against the spread. Houston’s ongoing issues winning on the road has led to a 8-17 SU record over its last 25 road games.

Just as unpredictable as the overall play of this team is Texans’ quarterback Brock Osweiler, who will get a chance to face his old team after coming over to Houston as a free agent from Denver. The added motivation to play well this Monday night needs to be tempered with the fact that he has completed fewer than 60 percent of his 227 passing attempts, while matching his eight touchdown throws with eight interceptions. The loss of JJ Watt has impacted this defense, which is now ranked 29th in the league against the run.

Denver’s fast 4-0 start out of the gate both SU and ATS has been tempered with back-to-back losses to Atlanta at home and San Diego on the road after closing as a favorite. The total stayed UNDER 44.5 points in last Thursday’s 21-13 loss to the Chargers and it has now stayed UNDER in the Broncos’ last three games. They are still 7-1 SU in their last eight home games and they have covered in four of their last five contests at Mile High.

The passing game has also been an issue with the Broncos led by second-year quarterback Trevor Siemian, who looked sharp in his first few starts only to take a big step backwards against San Diego. Denver’s offense as a whole is ranked 28th in the league in total yards per game and it is averaging 23.2 points a game. The Broncos’ defense remains the strength of this team and it is ranked fourth in yards allowed.

Houston at Denver Game Betting Trends

The Texans are 1-7 ATS in their last eight Monday night games and they have failed to cover in four of their last five games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six games following a SU win.

The Broncos are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a SU winning record and they are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a SU loss. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six games in October.

Denver has won three of the last five meetings both SU and ATS with the total staying UNDER or ending as a PUSH in four of those contests.

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos Prediction

 

The first inclination I had for this matchup was a low-scoring grinder that still stayed UNDER an already low 40.5-point total line, but I decided to go with Denver’s long-standing success playing at home going up against Houston long-running inability to win on the road.

 

As my “best bet” pick for Monday night, I am going to lay the touchdown spread and take the Broncos to win this game by more than seven points.

Free Pick: Take the Denver Broncos -7 (DS)
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