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Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens Free Point Spread Pick – Odds – NFL Prediction

By David Schwab

Monday Night Football in Week 12 of the NFL season heads to M&T Bank Stadium for an AFC clash between the Houston Texans and the Baltimore Ravens. Game time is set for 8:30 p.m. (ET) on ESPN.

Houston at Baltimore Game Overview

The Texans snapped a straight-up three-game losing streak with Sunday’s 31-21 victory against Arizona as 2.5-point home favorites. This was a much needed win on a team that is 4-6 on the year. Houston is 6-4 against the spread with the total going OVER in six of its first 10 games. It has a 3-1 record ATS on the road and it has covered in four of six games as underdogs.

In the absence of their best player on either side of the ball, you have to give head coach Bill O’Brian credit for keeping his team as competitive as possible. Tom Savage played his best game of the season at quarterback in last week’s win with 230 yards passing and two touchdown throws while completing 22 of his 32 attempts. The duo of D’Onta Foreman and Lamar Miller accounted for another 126 yards and two scores on the ground.

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Baltimore was able to even its SU record on the year to 5-5 with last Sunday’s 23-0 shutout against Green Bay as a slight 2.5-point favorite. The easy cover raised its record ATS to 5-4-1. The total stayed UNDER 38 points in that game after going OVER in the Ravens’ previous five outings. They are 3-2 ATS this season when closing as favorites.

Baltimore only needed a minimal effort from its offense in last week’s win behind a defense that forced three interceptions and two fumbles. The Ravens’ offense with Joe Flacco under center is dead last in the league in passing yards and it is only averaging 279.8 yards of total offense a game. This has resulted in a 21.3-point scoring average that slides up to 18th in the NFL. The only thing keeping Baltimore competitive is the fact that its defense is third in the league when it comes to points allowed (17.1).

Houston at Baltimore Game Betting Trends

  • The Texans are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win and they have failed to cover in nine of their last 10 Monday night games. The total has gone OVER in their last four games coming off a SU win.
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  • The Ravens have covered in five of their last six games on Monday night and they are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 conference games. The total has gone OVER in six of their last eight games following a SU win.
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  • Head-to-head in this conference matchup, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in the last four meetings in Baltimore.

Houston at Baltimore Free Game Prediction

Houston may be down, but it is not completely out of the wild card playoff race in the AFC given just how wide open things remain heading into the stretch run of the regular season. Baltimore is in the same boat given the current three-game gap in the AFC North with frontrunner Pittsburgh so you could probably put Monday night’s matchup in the ‘must win’ category for both teams. Given just how closely they do matchup against one another, I will take the Texans and the seven points on the road as my ‘best bet’ pick.

Free Pick: Take the Texans +7
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