One of the best things about wagering on the NFL is that the betting lines are released well in advance of the games themselves. This gives you ample time to handicap a matchup as well as gauge how the betting public has reacted to the opening lines by tracking the movement over the course of the week right up until kickoff.
Anyone who wagers on sports on a regular basis understands the importance of trying to gain an edge against the Oddsmakers, especially when it comes to the NFL. You might be able to find a bad line on a few games early in the season, but those betting lines only get sharper as the weeks go by. The edge in betting on the games now has to come from the line movements to the original spread.
The best course of action is to handicap the games you are looking to bet on as early as possible based on the opening spread. This is the true line so any movements in your favor are simply a bonus. Successful handicappers have come to rely heavily on the ‘confidence factor’ when it comes to pulling the trigger on their picks. Having an extra point or even half point in their favor can be used to justify an even heavier play to fully capitalize on the favorable line change.
While a half point move all the way up to a one point move are fairly common in the NFL, anything greater than that should raise a red flag. It could be a case of the betting public going heavy on that particular game with their early money or it could be the result of a power play by a group of sharps. Either way, when the betting odds move more than a point from the opening line, you should always take a closer look at that game before placing any bets. Once again, your main guide should be your level of confidence in your original pick. However, you also need to be sure you are not missing anything important concerning that particular matchup.
Line movements take on a much bigger role in the outcome of a game when the opening spread is either three or seven points. These are two of the most common margins of victory in NFL games so a movement of a half point either way could mean the difference between cashing-in on a game or it ending as a “push”. A few other key margins of victory are six, four and 10 points. Historical data has determined that these five numbers account for the margin of victory in 40 percent of NFL games.
Another important aspect of handicapping line movements in the NFL is shopping that line among the sportsbooks you rely on to actually bet on the games. Lines are set to help sway the betting public one way or the other, so any movements are dictated by the action that is coming in on the game. One book may be forced to move a half point to balance out the money on either side, while the other may sit tight on the opening spread. If you like to bet underdogs then you should be focused on taking advantage of the half point in your favor, but be wary of that extra half point if you like going with favorites.
Keep in mind that the betting public is usually going to gravitate towards the favorites in any given week, which to me is an opportunity to go against the tide by taking advantage of the line movements that favor the underdogs. The best betting strategy when it comes to the NFL is to handicap a game on face value based on the opening spread and then use the line movements that fall in your favor.
