Many times the public makes mistakes when they bet on college football rivalry games. There are some rules of thumb that you should use to be more successful when betting on rivalry games.
The Home Underdog
Maybe the best strategy in dealing with strategy games is to back the home dogs. No matter how bad a team has done during the regular season they will be motivated when a rival team comes to their home stadium. The favorites can, many times, take this game lightly, as they think they are better and do not take into consideration the crowd and how fired up the home team is. Often the away favorite is jockeying for bowl position and they may come into the game tight. Generally, the public will bet more on the favorites, as bettors always back favorites. The public sees them as the better team and think they will win the game. They will also play the away favorites more often in parlays, as it will not cost them much. However, it can cost them when the underdogs pull of the upset.
Often times the home dogs will not be playing in a bowl game and the rivalry game is their bowl game. Since they are at home it is easy for them to be motivated, especially for seniors. The best efforts from teams generally come when they are at home in rivalry games. Make sure you keep your eye out for this.
Small to Medium Road Underdogs
If a couple teams are pretty evenly matches then the rivalry will make it a real equalizer. There have been so many rivalry games that have been close in the last several years and the game is decided at the very end. Obviously, the dogs are the value bet in this type of situation and it does not matter if they are away or at home.
The public will, again, bet on the favorites more, as they believe that the better team and they are betting on the better team at home and it is an easy win. It sound legit, but it is simply not true. It can be difficult to see what team is better, especially when breaking down the team’s strengths and weaknesses. Home field advantage is not as much as the betting public believes when the visiting team is totally motivated. Road favorites come into the game with a lot of confidence and minor road dogs are ready to beat the odds.
Look at Significant Home Favorites
Many teams that are overmatched and big underdogs that have no real hope of winning and because of that come into the game relegated to lose. It is a fact that, because lines are so inflated for big home favorites that the public will bet on the dogs. They think that since that the big underdog will think they are better then the line and will come out on fire. This does happen, but not often. Many times you will see that the underdog is relegated to lose before the game begins and the home team ends up running up the score and covers the line.
In conservative rivalry games take the points and see what happens. More often then not you will win more times then you will lose when you do this. It may be a good idea for you to bet on some underdogs with a moneyline, as these games are not priced at 50/50 when it is the case that they are. In games that have big home favorites, underdog bettors should pass on making a wager. There will be some covered bets when the favorite does not bring their A game. However, many times the road underdog will trudge home after a getting beat.
