The top two teams in the NFC hook up for a possible playoff preview when the 49ers host the Packers
Sunday night in Santa Clara. San Francisco’s only favored by home-field advantage for this one, and Green Bay’s had success this year both on the road and as a dog. Which way are we going with our free NFL pick?
NFL Betting Odds
Week 12’s NFL betting odds opened San Francisco at -3 over Green Bay, with an over/under of right around 46. Early betting action then bumped that total to 47.
Packers vs. 49ers Set-Up
Green Bay bounced back from that lousy loss to the Chargers three weeks ago to beat Carolina last time out 24-16. The Packers then enjoyed the previous week off.
Green Bay spotted the Panthers the first seven points of the game a couple of weeks ago and trailed 10-7 in the second quarter, then used a 17-0 run spanning the halves to take a lead it would not relinquish. In the end, the Packers secured the victory and the cover as five-point favorites with a stuff of Carolina running back Christian McCaffrey on the final play of the game.
Green Bay got out-gained by the Panthers 401-388 but won the turnover battle 2-0, basically creating a plus-13 points differential.
The Packers have now been out-gained in three of their last four games, but they also rank 3rd in the NFL in turnover margin this season at +8.
At 8-2 overall, Green Bay leads the NFC North by a half-game and a tie-breaker over second-place Minnesota.
San Francisco, meanwhile, also bounced back from a loss last time out, rallying to beat Arizona last week 36-26. The 49ers spotted the Cardinals the first 16 points of the game, rallied to lead 17-16, later trailed 26-23 but won it with a touchdown with 30 seconds to go.
San Francisco financial backers then got a huge gift when Arizona fumbled a lateral into a 49ers touchdown on the final play of the game to push the 10-point spread.
On the day San Francisco out-gained the Cardinals 442-266, although only 34 of those 49ers yards came on the ground, as they basically abandoned the run after falling down early.
San Francisco has now out-gained eight of its last nine opponents, seven of those by at least 129 yards. But the 49ers have also lost the ground game each of their previous three games, going 0-2-1 ATS over that span.
At 9-1 overall, the Niners lead the NFC West by one game over second-place Seattle, although the Seahawks own the head-to-head tiebreaker between the teams. San Francisco also leads Green Bay by one game for the top spot in the NFC playoff standings.
These teams met most recently back in Week 6 of last season, a 33-30 Packers victory at Lambeau Field. But the 49ers, with CJ Beathard at quarterback, covered as nine-point dogs.
Also, that game played over a total of 47, as the teams combined for over 900 yards of total offense.
NFL Betting Trends
- Green Bay is 3-1 both SU and ATS on the road this season.
- Green Bay is 2-0 both SU and ATS as an underdog this season.
- San Francisco is 4-1 but only 2-2-1 ATS at home this season.
- San Francisco is 15-3 SU, 9-8-1 ATS, with Jimmy Garoppolo starting at QB.
- San Francisco is only 1-3-1 ATS over its last five games, as the spreads begin to catch up with them.
Totals Report
Totals are split 5-5 in Packers games this season, which are averaging 46 total points.
Totals are also 5-5 in Niners games this season, which are averaging 45 points.
Through the first 11 weeks of this NFL betting season, unders are 80-78.
- Get more details: Green Bay at San Francisco Betting Stats
