Kansas City is without its franchise quarterback while Green Bay is enjoying a resurgence from its future Hall of Famer, heading into this big inter-conference battle Sunday night at Arrowhead. If Patrick Mahomes were playing, the Chiefs would probably be favored by three or four points for this game, but instead, they’re catching four. How are we playing this game with our free NFL pick?
NFL Betting Odds
Week 8’s NFL betting odds opened Green Bay as a three-point road favorite over KC, with an over/under of right around 48. Early betting action then bumped the Packers to -4.
Packers vs. Chiefs Set-Up
Green Bay is 6-1 on the season, after dispatching of Oakland last week at Lambeau Field 42-24. The Packers trailed the Raiders 10-7 well into the second quarter but used a 21-0 run spanning the halves to take control, on their way to the victory and the cover as six-point favorites.
On the day, Green Bay actually got out-gained by Oakland 484-481 and out-rushed 155-60. But the Packers won the turnover battle 2-0, creating at least a plus-20 points differential.
Two weeks ago, Green Bay came from behind to beat Detroit 23-22, and three weeks ago, the Packers won at Dallas 34-24.
Green Bay’s been playing without its best wide receiver, Davante Adams, and his status for this game remains uncertain. But a group of no-names has been picking up the slack, as evidenced by the five touchdown passes Aaron Rodgers threw last week to five different receivers.
Kansas City, meanwhile, is 5-2 on the season, after drilling Denver last Thursday 30-6. The Chiefs spotted the Broncos the first six points of the game, then scored the final 30 for the win and the money as three-point road favorites.
Unfortunately, KC took a hit last week when star quarterback Patrick Mahomes suffered a leg injury on a quarterback sneak in the second quarter. Veteran Matt Moore took the Chiefs the rest of the way, and it looks like he’ll get the start Sunday night.
On the night, the Chiefs only produced 271 yards of total offense but held Denver to just 205 yards. The KC defense also stymied the Broncos into a 2/16 performance on 3rd- and 4th-down conversions recorded nine sacks, and scored a touchdown.
Last week’s win snapped a two-game losing skid for the Chiefs.
These two teams last met back in 2015, a 38-28 Packers victory in Green Bay. Rodgers quarterbacked the Pack that day, throwing five touchdown passes, while Alex Smith QB’d the Chiefs.
NFL Betting Trends
- The Packers are 2-0 both SU and ATS on the road this season.
- Kansas City is 1-2 both SU and ATS at home this season.
- Moore is 15-15 as an NFL starter.
- Home teams are just 36-64 ATS in the NFL this season, and home dogs are only 13-19 ATS.
- Favorites are 44-58 ATS this season.
Totals Report
- Overs are 4-3 in Packers games this season, which are averaging 46 total points.
- Overs are 4-3 in Chiefs games this season, which are averaging 50 points.
- Unders are 56-48 in the NFL this season.
- Get more details: Packers at Chiefs NFL Match-up Stats
