The Packers and Aaron Rodgers own a 7-1 lead in the recent rivalry with the Cowboys, including a couple of classic playoff victories, going 6-2 against the spread along the way. But can Green Bay keep that run going when the teams meet Sunday afternoon in Arlington? And who do we like here for our free NFL pick?
NFL Betting Odds
Week 5’s NFL betting odds opened Dallas at -4 over Green Bay, with an over/under of right around 48. Early betting action then dipped that spread to -3.5 and the total to 46.
Packers vs. Cowboys Set-Up
Green Bay is 3-1 on the season, after falling at home to Philadelphia last Thursday, 34-27. The Packers drove their opening possession of the game 89 yards to a touchdown and led 10-0 early in the second quarter. But Green Bay gave up three quick Philly scores and trailed 21-20 at the half. Still trailing by a touchdown in the fourth quarter, the Packers twice drove to 1st-and-goals inside the Eagles’ 10-yard line, once at the 1, but came up empty both times and lost outright as a four-point favorite.
On the night, Green Bay outgained Philadelphia 491-336 but got outrushed 176-77 and lost the turnover battle 2-0, creating at least a minus-7 points differential, and maybe more.
The Packers opened this season with wins over Chicago, Minnesota, and Denver, but a case could be made they got outplayed in two of those games.
Dallas, meanwhile, is also 3-1, after falling at New Orleans Sunday night 12-10. The Cowboys took an early 3-0 lead and led 10-9 through three quarters but gave up a Saints field goal with 13 minutes left and could not respond.
On the night, Dallas got outgained by New Orleans 266-257, outrushed 117-45, lost time of possession by a 36-24 split, and turned the ball over three times.
The Cowboys opened this season with wins over the Giants, Washington, and Miami, three teams who are a combined 2-10 this season. But Dallas dominated those three teams by an average score of 32-18 and covered spreads of 7, 6, and 22 points.
Packers-Cowboys Recent History
Green Bay, as mentioned above, is 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS over the last eight meetings with Dallas. Most recently, Rodgers and the Packers broke Cowboy Nation’s heart with a wild 35-31 victory at JerryWorld back in Week 5 of 2017.
NFL Betting Trends
Home teams are just 21-40 ATS this season, and favorites are only 25-36 ATS. But those trends are probably due for a correction.
Totals Report
- Totals are split 2-2 in Packers games this season, which are averaging just 38 total points.
- Totals are split 2-2 in Cowboys games this season, which are averaging 41 points.
- Overs are 2-1 in the three Rodgers-Dak Prescott match-ups, which have averaged a healthy 59 points.
Through Monday night, unders are 35-28 in the NFL this season.
- Get more details: Packers at Cowboys NFL Match-up Stats
