The 6-8 Packers own back-to-back victories and still think they’ve got a shot at the playoffs. The 8-6 Dolphins own three straight defeats but also still harbor postseason hopes. Green Bay shoots to keep things rolling while Miami tries to stop a slide when the teams meet in the first of three Christmas Day NFL games down in South Florida. How are we playing this game with our free GB/Mia pick?
NFL Betting Lines
The Week 16 NFL betting odds opened Miami at -4 for Sunday, with an over/under of right around 46.5. Early betting action then edged the Dolphins down to -3.5 and goosed that total to 50.
Packers-Dolphins NFL Betting Preview
Green Bay comes into Sunday off back-to-back victories, including a 24-12 decision at home over the Rams Monday night. The Packers, coming off their bye week, scored the first three points of the game and never trailed. Green Bay led 10-6 at the half, then scored the first 14 points of the second half and held on from there for the win and the cover at -8. The Packers out-gained Los Angeles 345-156, out-rushed the Rams 138-72, and dominated time of possession by a 37:23 split. Two games ago, Green Bay rallied from a 19-10 fourth-quarter deficit at Chicago to win 28-19 and covered at -3.5. At 6-8 overall, the Packers trail Washington by a game and a half and a tie-breaker in the battle for the No. 7 spot in the NFC playoff standings. But the Commanders are 0-1-1 their last two times out, and they’ve got three tough games yet to play, beginning with a date at San Francisco this weekend. So Green Bay isn’t dead yet. Miami, meanwhile, lugs a three-game losing skid into Sunday after falling gamely in tough conditions at Buffalo last Saturday 32-29. The Dolphins trailed the Bills 21-13 at the half, then scored the first 16 points of the second half to take a 29-21 lead. But Miami allowed Buffalo to tie the game midway through the fourth quarter, then lost it on a Bills field goal at the buzzer. However, the Dolphins hung on for the cover as seven-point dogs. Miami got out-gained by Buffalo 446-405. Two weeks ago, the Dolphins managed just 219 yards of total offense and lost at the Chargers 23-17. Three weeks ago, Miami lost time of possession by a 41:19 split and fell at the 49ers 33-17. At 8-6 overall, the Dolphins, once thought to be shoo-ins for the postseason, occupy the No. 7 spot in the AFC playoff standings, just one game ahead of 7-7 New England.
Common Opponents
These two teams have played six common opponents so far this season; the Vikings, Bears, Patriots, Jets, Bills, and Lions. Miami played those foes to 4-3 both SU and ATS and +0 yards per game, Green Bay to 3-4 both SU and ATS but +59 YPG.
Packers-Dolphins Recent History
These teams don’t’ meet too often, just 15 times before, Miami going 10-5. But most recently, four seasons ago, Green Bay beat the Dolphins at Lambeau Field 31-12. Aaron Rodgers threw a couple of touchdown passes for the Packers that day while Brock Osweiler, who’s no longer in the League, quarterbacked Miami.
- Get more details: Green Bay at Miami Week 16 Betting Stats
NFL Betting Trends
Green Bay is 3-2 ATS this season as an underdog.
Totals Report
- The Totals are split 7-7 in Packers games this season, which are averaging 43 total points.
- The Totals are also split 7-7 in Dolphins games this season, which are averaging 49 points.
- Through Thursday night, the Unders are 127-95 (57 percent) in the NFL this season.
