It’s the “aging gunslinger vs. the young gun” story with this interesting inter-conference match-up as Aaron Rodgers and his 3-1 Packers visit Joe Burrow and his 3-1 Bengals Sunday afternoon at PBS. Rodgers will be making his 195th career NFL start Sunday while Burrow will be making his 15th, but both guys have their teams in first place. Green Bay is lined as a three-point road favorite here, which would seem to indicate the Packers would be favored by six points on a neutral field. But does that sound right? Here’s our homework for this game, with our free NFL betting pick.
NFL Betting Lines
The Week 5 NFL betting odds opened the Packers as three-point road favorites here, with an over/under of right around 49. Early betting action has since held that spread steady but bumped that total a point and a half, to 50.5.
Packers Betting Preview
Green Bay is 3-1 on the season after beating Pittsburgh at Lambeau last week, 27-17. The Pack-ers spotted the Steelers the first seven points of the game, then scored twice in three minutes ear-ly in the second quarter and led 17-10 at the half. Green Bay then scored the first 10 points out of the locker room and held on from there for the win and the money as 6.5-point favorites. The Packers out-gained Pittsburgh 367-282, out-rushed the Steelers 131-62 and won the time of possession by a 35:25 split. They also benefited tremendously from an iffy off-sides call that ba-sically gave them a +10-points advantage. Green Bay opened this season with that terrible loss to New Orleans but is 3-0 both SU and ATS since, with wins over Detroit, San Francisco, and Pittsburgh.
At 3-1, the Packers lead the NFC North by a game over 2-2 Chicago.
More Week 5 Picks: NYG at DAL Analysis & Pick Against the Spread
Bengals Betting Preview
Cincinnati, meanwhile, is also 3-1 on the season after rallying to beat lowly Jacksonville last Thursday night 24-21. The Bengals, coming off a big divisional road win at Pittsburgh and play-ing as favorites at -7.5, came out flat and trailed the Jaguars 14-0 at the half. Cincinnati then woke up and scored on its first two possessions of the second half to tie the score at 14-14 but fell behind again early in the fourth quarter. The Bengals then scored the last 10 points of the game, the last three on a field goal at the buzzer, to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. But they couldn’t cover that spread. Cincinnati out-gained Jacksonville 420-341 but got out-rushed 139-78. The Bengals opened this season with an overtime win over Minnesota, then lost a three-point game at Chicago, then picked up a rare for them win at rival Pittsburgh. At 3-1, Cincinnati is tied for first place in the AFC North with Baltimore and Cleveland in a race that looks like it might go down to the last Sunday of the season.
These two teams last met four seasons ago, a 27-24 Packers overtime victory at Lambeau. Andy Dalton quarterbacked the Bengals that day, and they covered as seven-point dogs.
- Get more details: GB/CIN 10/10/21 Match-up Stats
NFL Betting Trends
- Home teams are just 30-34 SU, 27-37 ATS in the NFL this season.
- Favorites are 38-27 SU but only 27-38 ATS in the NFL this season.
- Home dogs are 8-15 SU but 12-11 ATS in the NFL this season.
Totals Report
Totals are split 2-2 in Packers games this season, which are averaging 53 total points. The Under is 3-1 in Bengals games this season, which are averaging 42 points. The Under is 38-27 in the NFL this season.
