The Lions beat the Bears nine out of ten times into 2018, but Chicago swept the season series from Detroit last year. The Bears are also 6-2-1 against the spread in the previous nine meetings with Detroit. Who do we like for our free NFL pick on the 179th edition of this rivalry Sunday afternoon at Soldier Field?
NFL Betting Odds
Week 10’s NFL betting odds opened Chicago as a three-point favorite over Detroit, with an over/under of right around 44. Early betting action then dipped the Bears to -2.5 and dropped that total to 42.
Lions vs. Bears Set-Up
Detroit started this season 2-0-1 but is just 1-4 over its last five outings, after falling at Oakland last week 31-24. The Lions trailed the Raiders 7-0 early, later led 14-10, and scored to tie the game at 24 with five minutes to go. They then allowed Oakland to drive 75 yards to a touchdown, themselves drove 76 yards to the Raiders’ 1-yard line but came up empty on a fourth down with two seconds left.
On the day Detroit produced 473 yards of total offense but gave up 460. The Lions also got out-rushed by the Raiders 171-90, lost time of possession 33:27, and committed the only two turnovers of the game, which cost them a -20 points differential.
The Lions came up short ATS last week as two-point dogs; two weeks ago, they beat the Giants 31-26 but gave up a late score and lost ATS as six-point favorites. However, even though Detroit’s lost four of its last five games, it got screwed against Kansas City and Green Bay. A play or two (or a call) goes differently, and the Lions could be 5-3 this season, and perhaps 6-3.
Chicago, meanwhile, started 3-1 this season but now owns a four-game losing streak after falling at Philadelphia last week 22-14. The Bears, as five-point dogs, trailed the Eagles 19-0 in the third quarter, rallied to within a push of the spread at 19-14 early in the fourth but could get no closer. Chicago then lost the money when Philly kicked a field goal with 25 seconds left.
On the day the Bears got out-gained by the Eagles 373-164, out-rushed 146-62, made just ten first downs to 26 for Philadelphia and lost time of possession by a huge 40:20 split. In other words, Chicago got thoroughly out-played.
Two weeks ago, the Bears lost to the Chargers 17-16 on a missed field goal at the buzzer; just before that, they fell to New Orleans 36-25, and just before that, they lost to Oakland 24-21.
At 3-4-1 and 3-5 overall, respectively, Detroit and Chicago trail first-place Green Bay by three and 3.5 games in the NFC North race, and they’re two and 2.5 games behind Minnesota in the battle for the second NFC wild-card spot.
Lions-Bears Recent History
As mentioned above, the Lions were on a roll in this rivalry, but the Bears won the two meetings last season by scores of 34-22 and 23-16. Chicago covered that first game at home as a seven-point favorite, then covered at -3 on Thanksgiving in Detroit.
NFL Betting Trends
- Detroit is 4-2 ATS this season as an underdog.
- Chicago is 1-5 ATS this season as a favorite.
Totals Report
- Overs are 6-2 in Lions games this season, which are averaging a healthy 53 total points.
- Unders are 5-3 in Bears games this season, which are averaging 36 points.
- Unders are 5-2 over the last seven Lions-Bears games.
- Unders are 67-64 so far this NFL season.
- Get more details: Lions at Bears NFL Match-up Stats
