Recent Form and Key Stats:
Denver Broncos:
- Record: 9-6 (11-4 ATS, 10-5 O/U)
- Offense: 24.2 PPG (10th), Defense: 26.2 PPG (28th)
- Road Record: 4-4
Denver has been a high-scoring team recently, going 8-2 on over/under bets in their last 10 games. Their offense has averaged 27.2 PPG over the last five games, led by QB Bo Nix, who has been efficient despite inconsistency. Their defense, however, has struggled, particularly against the pass, ranking 28th in yards allowed per game (359.9). The Broncos’ special teams have been strong, leading the league in punt return yards.
In their most recent game, Denver fell short to the Chargers 34-27, failing to cover as 2.5-point underdogs. They surrendered 263 passing yards and struggled to contain the Chargers’ offense.
Cincinnati Bengals:
- Record: 7-8 (9-6 ATS, 10-5 O/U)
- Offense: 22.9 PPG (13th), Defense: 24.2 PPG (19th)
- Home Record: 2-5
Cincinnati has underperformed at home this season, with just two wins in seven games. Their defense has been vulnerable against the run, allowing 128.3 rushing yards per game (21st). The Bengals are heavily reliant on their passing attack but struggle with efficiency, averaging just 6.8 yards per attempt.
Despite their defensive issues, Cincinnati is coming off a convincing 27-17 win over the Colts, covering the spread as 3.5-point favorites. The Bengals’ offensive line has been a point of concern, as they’ve allowed above-average pressure on the quarterback, but they managed to control the game against Indianapolis.
Matchup Analysis:
Denver Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense:
- Denver’s passing attack averages 253.4 YPG (12th), while Cincinnati allows 231.6 YPG (26th).
- The Broncos’ rushing game (108.5 YPG, 19th) faces a weak Bengals run defense (128.3 YPG allowed, 21st).
Denver’s balanced offensive approach could exploit Cincinnati’s defensive struggles. Look for Bo Nix to challenge the Bengals’ secondary with intermediate and deep passes, while the rushing game will try to capitalize on Cincinnati’s soft run defense.
Cincinnati Offense vs. Denver Defense:
- Cincinnati’s passing attack (205.5 YPG, 23rd) faces a Denver pass defense allowing 205.5 YPG (15th).
- The Bengals’ rushing attack averages 96.8 YPG (20th) against Denver’s defense, which ranks 19th against the run.
The Bengals will likely lean on their passing game, but Denver’s pass rush (ranked 3rd with 1.5 sacks per game) could be a disruptive factor. Cincinnati’s offensive line must improve to protect their quarterback effectively.
Trends:
- Denver is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games and has gone over the total in 8 of those contests.
- Cincinnati has covered in three of their last four games but is just 2-5 straight up at home.
Key Player to Watch:
Bo Nix (Denver QB): Nix has been productive in recent weeks, including a four-touchdown performance against Atlanta. He will need to be sharp against Cincinnati’s opportunistic secondary.
Conclusion:
This game features contrasting strengths, with Denver’s offense and special teams against Cincinnati’s passing attack. The Bengals’ home struggles and defensive vulnerabilities give Denver a chance to cover the spread as 4-point underdogs.
