The Denver Broncos get a chance to prove they’re not just playoff pretenders when they battle the two-time defending AFC champion Chiefs in an AFC West rivalry match Sunday night at Arrowhead. Denver lost four games in a row back in October but is 3-1 its last four times out, climbing above .500 and into the AFC playoff picture. Kansas City, meanwhile, was also struggling a while back but now owns a four-game winning streak.
The Chiefs are favored by almost double-digits for this one; how are we playing this game with our free NFL betting pick?
NFL Betting Lines
The Week 13 NFL betting odds opened Kansas City as a 10-point favorite for this game, with an over/under of right around 49. Early betting action then dipped that spread to 9.5 and dropped that total to 47.
Broncos Betting Preview
Denver is 3-1 both SU and ATS its last four times out after beating the Chargers at home last week 28-13. The Broncos, playing as home dogs getting 2.5 points, scored the first two touchdowns of the game, led 14-7 at the half, then scored the first 14 points of the second half and hung on from there for the victory.
Denver got out-gained by the Chargers 357-302 but out-rushed Los Angeles 147-72 and won the turnover battle 2-1, creating a +3 points differential.
The Broncos have actually been out-gained by seven of their last eight opponents, although they’ve also out-rushed two of their last three foes.
At 6-5 overall, Denver is part of a three-way tie for second place in the AFC West with the Chargers and Raiders, just one game back of the first-place Chiefs. The Broncos also trail the Chargers by a tie-breaker in the battle for the No. 7 spot in the AFC playoff standings.
Chiefs Betting Preview
Kansas City, meanwhile, rides a four-game winning streak into Sunday night after beating Dallas two weeks ago 19-9. The Chiefs then enjoyed last week off.
KC hit the board on its first three possessions of the game against the Cowboys and led 16-3 at the half. The Chiefs then never let Dallas get any closer than 10 points from there on their way toward the victory and the cover at -2.5.
Kansas City out-gained the banged-up Cowboys 370-276 and won the ground battle 126-82.
The Chiefs have now out-gained and out-rushed three of their last four opponents.
At 7-4, Kansas City leads the AFC West by one game over the three other teams in that division, who are all 6-5. KC also only trails Baltimore by one game (and two other teams) in the battle for the No. 1 spot in the AFC playoff standings.
- Get more details: Denver at Kansas City Week 13 Betting Stats
Broncos-Chiefs Recent History
Kansas City owns an 11-game winning streak over Denver, going 9-2 ATS along the way. Last year the Chiefs swept two games from the Broncos by scores of 43-16 and 22-16. KC used a pick-6 and a kick-off return for a touchdown to build a big lead in that first meeting, then rallied in the second half to win that second meeting.
NFL Betting Trends
- Home teams are 86-91 SU, 75-102 ATS in the NFL this season.
- Favorites are 107-72 SU, 79-100 ATS in the NFL this season.
Totals Report
The Under is 9-2 in Broncos games this season, which are averaging 39 total points.
The Under is 6-5 in Chiefs games this season, which are averaging 48 points.
The Unders is 101-79 in the NFL this season.
The Under is 4-1-1 over the last six meetings between these two teams.
