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Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts NFL Picks – Odds and Predictions

By David Schwab
Date: 14/12/2017 8:30 pm
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium
TV: NBC Sports

Betting Odds



Point Spread: Denver -2
Total: 41

The 4-9 Denver Broncos and the 3-10 Indianapolis Colts kick things off in Week 14 at Lucas Oil Stadium in a prime time AFC matchup on Thursday Night Football. Game time on NBC is set for 8:30 p.m.

Denver at Indianapolis Game Overview

Denver’s promising straight-up 3-1 start is just a faded memory following a dismal 1-8 record since then. The Broncos did manage to snap that eight-game losing streak with Sunday’s 23-0 shutout against the New York Jets as one-point underdogs at home. The total stayed well UNDER the 40.5-point closing line after going OVER or ending as a PUSH in five of their previous six games. Denver is 3-9-1 against the spread this season including a 0-6 mark ATS on the road.

The 23 points scored in Sunday’s win was just the second time in Denver’s last 11 games that it scored more than 20 points. Trevor Siemian was back under center in what has been a revolving door at quarterback and he ended the game against New York with 200 yards passing and one touchdown throw while completing 19 of his 31 attempts. Demaryius Thomas led the way with eight catches for 93 yards and that lone passing touchdown.

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The Colts came out on the wrong end of a tough 13-7 overtime loss to the Bills in a Buffalo snow storm on Sunday. The foul weather kept the total way UNDER 37 points and it has stayed UNDER in their last five games. Indianapolis has been equally dismal this season at 3-10 SU and its record ATS improves slightly to 6-7. They have been able to cover in four of their first six home games, but they fall to 5-7 ATS when closing as underdogs.

Indianapolis had to turn to Jacoby Brissett this season at quarterback with Andrew Luck still on the shelf. The results have been predictable with the offense ranked 30th in the NFL in scoring with 16.3 points per game while ranking 31st in average yards gained (290.7). The Colts’ defense has been just as bad with a points-allowed average of 26.4 that is ranked 31st in the league.

Denver at Indianapolis Game Betting Trends

  • The Broncos have covered in eight of their last 10 Thursday games, but they have gone 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win. The total has gone OVER in five of their last seven road games.
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  • The Colts are 29-10 ATS in their last 39 games against a team with a SU losing record and they have gone 12-2-1 ATS in their last 15 games played on a Thursday. The total has gone OVER in five of their last six games against a team with a SU losing record.
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  • The underdog in this matchup is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and the total has gone OVER in 10 of the last 12 meetings in this AFC tilt.

Denver at Indianapolis Free Game Prediction

Teams with a combined seven SU wins this time of year are either playing for their jobs or riding things out in hopes of securing a better position in next year’s draft. I think both of these teams are still putting forth an effort to win which should keep things close for all four quarters. Something tells me that the final score will be high enough to take the total OVER the current 41-point line, but my ‘best bet’ pick is Indianapolis picking up the SU win as a home underdog.

Free Pick: Take Indy on the Moneyline
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