Two teams struggling through recent weeks meet when the injury-depleted Browns host the Broncos for this week’s edition of Thursday night NFL betting action. Cleveland began this sea-son with great expectations after making the playoffs last season but is really hurting and will play this game without several key people. Denver, meanwhile, started 3-0 this season but now owns a three-game losing skid.
The Browns opened as five-point favorites for this game, but that line’s dropped through the week with even more bad injury news. Here’s our homework on this one, with our free NFL Week 7 pick.
NFL Betting Lines
The Week 7 NFL betting odds opened Cleveland at around -5 for this game, with an over/under of 44. Early betting action then dropped that line two points, to -3, and dipped that total to 42.5.
Denver Betting Preview
Denver is 3-3 on the season after losing at home to the rival Raiders last week 34-24. The Bron-cos gave up a long Las Vegas touchdown three minutes into the game, tied the score at 7-7 a few moments later but trailed 17-7 at the half. Denver gave up the first seven points of the second half and later trailed 31-10 before scoring two meaningless touchdowns in the fourth quarter to make the final score a bit more respectable.
The Broncos only got out-gained by the Raiders 426-421, but a big chunk of Denver yardage came in catch-up mode after falling behind by three scores. The Broncos also lost the turnover battle 4-0.
Denver started this season 3-0, beating three teams – the Giants, Jaguars, and Jets – who are a combined 3-14. The Broncos then lost to Baltimore 23-7, to Pittsburgh 27-19, and now to Las Vegas.
At 3-3 overall, Denver is tied for third place in the tight AFC West with Kansas City, one game behind the Chargers and Raiders.
Cleveland Betting Preview
Cleveland, meanwhile, is also 3-3 after falling at home to undefeated Arizona last week 37-14. The Browns fell down to the Cardinals 20-0 early in the second quarter but pulled to within 23-14 at the half thanks to a successful Hail Mary. But Cleveland came up completely empty in the second half in suffering its second straight loss.
The Browns got out-gained by Arizona 352-290, out-rushed 144-73, and lost both time of pos-session by a 35:25 split and the turnover battle 3-0.
Cleveland had out-gained and out-rushed each of its first five opponents this season – but not last week, with guys dropping like flies.
Two weeks ago, the Browns blew a 27-13 lead and lost to the Chargers 47-42.
At 3-3 overall, Cleveland is tied for third place in the AFC North with Pittsburgh, two games behind first-place Baltimore.
On the personnel front, the Browns will play this game without their starting quarterback, top two running backs, and two starting tackles. Back-up Case Keenum, who took Minnesota to a conference championship game just three seasons ago, will get the start behind center for Cleve-land Thursday.
Broncos-Browns Recent History
These two teams, who played a couple of huge games back in the 1980s, have split two meetings over the last three seasons. Most recently, two years ago, the Broncos beat the Browns 24-19 out at Mile High. Mayfield quarterbacked Cleveland that day against Brandon Allen for Denver.
NFL Betting Trends
Home teams are just 41-50 SU, 37-54 ATS in the NFL this season. However, that sounds like a trend about due for a correction.
Favorites are 58-36 SU but only 43-51 ATS in the NFL this season.
Over the last season-plus, Thursday night home teams are just 9-11 SU and 5-15 ATS.
Totals Report
Unders are 4-2 in Broncos games this season, which are averaging just 39 total points.
Overs are 4-2 in Browns games this season, which are averaging 51 points.
After going 7-5 last week, Unders are 50-42 in the NFL this season.
