Somebody’s gotta win the NFC East – it’s in the rules – and it could be decided when the Cowboys visit the Eagles Sunday afternoon in Philly. Dallas bombed Philadelphia earlier this season, and it’s lined as a slight road favorite for this game. But it’s fairly certain they won’t win this one by 27 points. Who do we like here for our free NFL pick?
NFL Betting Odds
Week 16’s NFL betting odds opened Dallas at -2.5 over Philly, with an over/under of right around 48. Early betting action then dipped the Cowboys to -2 and the total to 47.
Cowboys vs. Eagles Betting Preview
Dallas just picked up a desperately needed victory last week, pounding the Rams 44-21. That game was tied at 7-7 early in the second quarter when the Cowboys used a 30-0 run spanning the halves to take total control, on their way to snapping a three-game losing streak.
On the day Dallas posted a season-high 263 yards rushing, held Los Angeles to just 22 and dominated time of possession by a 36:24 split.
Two weeks ago, the Cowboys lost at Chicago 31-24, and three weeks ago, they lost at home to Buffalo 26-15. And neither of those games were as close as those final scores might indicate.
Dallas ranks No. 1 in the league in total offense, averaging 434 yards per game, and No. 7 in total defense, holding foes to 324 YPG. And usually, out-gaining your opponent by 110 yards is a good way to win a game and cover a spread in the NFL. But for whatever reasons, mostly intangible, this team has trouble winning games.
Philadelphia, meanwhile, has won two straight, after rallying to beat Washington last week 37-27. But the Eagles haven’t exactly looked great as of late. They trailed for a good part of the game against the Redskins, then scored twice in the last half-minute for victory and the miracle cover as seven-point favorites. And two weeks ago Philly had to rally from down 17-3 to the lowly Giants to win 23-17 in overtime.
Before that, the Eagles lost three games in a row.
Also, if not for that fumble return for a touchdown on the last play of the game last week, Philadelphia would be 0-5 ATS its recent five times out.
The Eagles rank No. 16 in total offense at 353 YPG and 11th in total defense at 329 YPG. So by the numbers, the Eagles should also be better than their record.
Big-picture, at 7-7, these teams are tied for the lead in the NFC East, but Dallas owns the head-to-head tie-breaker, thanks to that 37-10 romp in the first meeting between these teams this season back in week seven. So the Cowboys can clinch the division title with a win Sunday, while the Eagles need a win and something else next week.
Cowboys-Eagles Recent History
Dallas owns a four-game winning streak over Philadelphia, going 4-0 ATS along the way. Most recently, back in week seven, the Cowboys destroyed the Eagles 37-10, easily covering as three-point favorites.
Dallas pounced out to a 14-0 lead that night, pushed that advantage to 27-7 by the half, and cruised from there.
Also, that game stayed under a total of 50, as the teams only combined for 13 points after halftime.
NFL Betting Trends
- Dallas is 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS on the road this season.
- Dallas is 39-23 SU, 33-26-3 ATS with Dak Prescott at QB.
- Dallas is 2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS this season against teams at .500 or better right now.
- Philadelphia is 4-3 SU but only 2-5 ATS at home this season.
- Philadelphia is 30-24 SU, 26-28 ATS with Carson Wentz at QB.
- Philadelphia is 3-4 both SU and ATS against teams at .500 or better right now.
Totals Report
- Overs are 9-5 in Cowboys games this season, which are averaging 48 total points.
- Totals are split 7-7 in Eagles games this season, which are averaging 47 points.
- Unders are 4-2 over the last six games in this rivalry.
- Get more details: Cowboys at Eagles NFL Match-up Stats
