The Cowboys still hold out hope, albeit slim, of claiming the No. 1 seed for the upcoming NFC playoffs, while the Titans are working on blowing a playoff berth in the AFC, heading into this week’s edition of NFL Thursday night football betting action. At 11-4, Dallas needs a couple more wins and help from elsewhere to earn that wild-card bye. At 7-8 Tennessee, down its starting quarterback, looks like it’s in trouble.
Which way are we going here with our free NFL betting pick?
NFL Betting Lines
Most Week 17 NFL betting odds opened Dallas at -9 for Thursday night, with an over/under of right around 44.5. Early betting action then bumped the Cowboys to -10 and dropped that total to 42. News of Derick Henry not playing has seen the spread move as high as -125 and the total has fallen to to 40.
Cowboys-Titans NFL Betting Preview
Dallas just bounced back from that gut-wrenching loss at Jacksonville two weeks ago to outlast Philadelphia last Sunday 40-34. The Cowboys spotted the Eagles, who were playing without starting QB Hurts, the first 10 points of the game and trailed 20-17 at the half. Dallas still trailed 34-27 midway through the fourth but used a 13-0 run to take the lead, then survived a Philly excursion into the red zone in the final seconds.
The Cowboys also sneaked away with the cover as four-point favorites.
Dallas got out-gained by the Eagles 442-419 but won the turnover battle 4-1, creating a +13 points differential.
Two weeks ago, Dallas blew a 27-10 third-quarter lead and lost at Jacksonville 40-34 on a fluke play in overtime. Three weeks ago, the Cowboys needed a touchdown in the last minute to beat Houston 27-23. A couple of plays here and there, and Dallas might be 0-3 its last three times out.
At 11-4 overall, Dallas sits in the No. 5 spot in the NFC playoff standings and has already clinched a postseason berth. But the Cowboys also actually still hold a chance to claim the NFC East title and possibly the No. 1 seed in the upcoming NFC playoffs. They need wins Thursday and next week at Washington, plus a bunch of help from elsewhere, but hey, it’s still a chance.
Tennessee, meanwhile, lugs a five-game losing skid into Thursday night after falling at home to the Texans Sunday 19-14. The Titans, playing without starting QB Tannehill, scored the first seven points of the game but trailed 10-7 at the half. Tennessee then scored the first seven points of the second half to re-take a lead but gave up the last nine points of the game, the final six with just under three minutes to go, and could not respond.
The Titans got out-gained by Houston 285-272 and won the ground battle 184-70 but lost the turnover battle 3-1, which basically cost them three points.
Two weeks ago, Tennessee managed only 284 yards of offense and lost at the Chargers 17-14. Three weeks ago, the Titans gave up 428 yards of offense and lost to Jacksonville 36-22. Tennessee has also been out-gained by each of its last five opponents while averaging just 15 points per game.
At 7-8 overall, the Titans are now tied with the surging Jaguars for the lead in the AFC South, with a showdown with the Jags in the season finale next week.
Common Opponents
These two teams have played eight common opponents this season; the Giants, Bengals, Redskins, Eagles, Packers, Colts, Texans, and Jaguars. Dallas played those foes to 7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS, and +33 yards per game, Tennessee to 5-5 both SU and ATS but -36 YPG.
Cowboys-Titans Recent History
These teams last met four seasons ago, a 28-14 Titans victory. Marcus Mariota quarterbacked Tennessee that day against Dak Prescott for the Cowboys.
- Get more details: Dallas at Tennessee 12/29/22 Betting Stats
NFL Betting Trends
- Through Week 16, double-digit favorites are 16-3 SU but only 8-11 ATS in the NFL this season.
- Through Week 16, home dogs are 42-49 SU and 54-37 ATS in the NFL this season.
Totals Report
The Overs are 8-6 in Cowboys games this season which are averaging 49 total points.
The Unders are 10-5 in Titans games this season which are averaging 39 points.
Through Week 16, the Unders are 136-101 (57 percent) in the NFL this season.
