The 2021 NFL season starts with a good one when the defending Super Bowl champion Bucca-neers hosts the Cowboys Thursday night at the New Sombrero. Tom Brady got all the ink last year on Tampa’s trek toward the title, but it was the Bucs defense that really came through. And now this team returns all 22 starters, almost unheard of these days in the NFL. Meanwhile, Dallas is coming off a lost season last year, one in which QB Dak Prescott missed the previous 11 games with that terrible leg injury.
Early betting action pushed Tampa Bay past a touchdown on the betting line for this one. Which way are we going here with our free NFL Week 1 pick?
NFL Betting Lines
The Week 1 NFL betting odds opened Tampa at -6.5 for this game, with an over/under of around 52. Early betting action then bumped the Bucs past a touchdown, up to -9 at most betting shops.
Cowboys-Buccaneers NFL Betting Preview
Dallas is coming off a lost 2020 season, its first under Coach McCarthy, a disaster thanks to some key injuries and a terrible defense. The Cowboys started 2-3 last year, scoring a bunch of points but giving up bunches, too. Dallas then lost Prescott for the season to injury and lost six of its next seven games, several in a non-competitive fashion. And yet, the Cowboys were still alive in the anemic NFC East. Dallas then won three games in a row but lost its season finale to the Gi-ants to finish 6-10 and miss the playoffs for the second straight season.
Dallas ranked 14th in the NFL in offense last season at 372 yards per game but 23rd in defense, allowing 386 YPG. And it seemed worse than that; eight times, the Cowboys gave up at least 33 points.
Over the off-season, Dallas brought in Coach Quinn, who’s got a pretty good track record, as its new DC and used its top six picks in April’s draft on that side of the ball.
The Cowboys will go off this season playing against a season wins total over/under of 9.5.
Tampa, meanwhile, reached the Promised Land last year with St. Thomas at quarterback and a great defense. The Buccaneers started 3-2 last year and only sat at 7-5 into December. But Tampa won its previous four games to earn a wild-card playoff berth, then won at Washington, New Orleans, and Green Bay to reach the Super Bowl. The Bucs then took advantage of a banged-up Kansas City team to win their second Lombardi Trophy.
Tampa ranked seventh in the League in offense last year at 384 YPG and sixth in defense, hold-ing foes to 327 YPG. The Bucs also led the League in run defense, allowing just 81 YPG on the ground.
Over the off-season, Tampa managed to retain all 11 starters on both sides of the ball, an amazing feat in itself.
This year the Buccaneers will play against a wins over/under of 11.5.
Cowboys-Buccaneers Recent History
Dallas is 7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS over the last eight meetings with Tampa Bay but none of those games involved Tom Brady. Most recently, back in 2018, the Cowboys beat the Bucs 27-20.
NFL Betting Trends
In their subsequent season openers, the last ten defending Super Bowl champions are 7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS.
Totals Report
Overs played 9-7 in Cowboys games last season, which averaged 54 total points. Overs also played 4-1 in games Prescott started at QB, which averaged 69 points!
Overs played 9-7 in Buccaneers games last season, which averaged 53 points.
