Tom Brady begins what finally might be his final playoff run when his 8-9 Buccaneers host the 12-5 Cowboys for the final NFL wild-card game of the weekend Monday night in Tampa.
Brady’s 45 years old, and the Bucs are a sub-.500 team, so that this run might be short. But then again, they’re playing Dallas, so that anything might happen.
Tampa beat the Cowboys in Dallas to begin this season, but it’s lined as a short home dog for Monday night. Here’s our homework on this game, along with our free NFL betting pick.
NFL Wild Card Betting Lines
The NFL wild-card weekend betting odds opened Dallas as a 2.5-point road favorite for Monday night, with an over/under of right around 45. Both numbers were holding steady in the early betting action.
According to Sagarin’s NFL ratings at USAToday.com the Cowboys should be favored by three points for this match-up.
Cowboys-Buccaneers Wild Card Betting Preview
Dallas opened this season with a dismal 19-3 home loss to this Tampa Bay team and lost QB Dak Prescott in the process. But the Cowboys then won four straight games with backup Cooper Rush behind center, including victories over Cincinnati and the Giants. Prescott returned in Week 7, and Dallas used an 8-2 run, which included a romp over Minnesota and a second victory over the Giants, to secure a wild-card berth. But last week, with an outside shot at the No. 1 seed for the upcoming NFC playoffs, the Cowboys laid an egg and lost at Washington 26-6.
Nonetheless Dallas is back in the postseason for the second straight season under Coach McCarthy.
The Cowboys managed just 182 yards of total offense last week, just 64 on the ground, in a game they were supposedly trying to win. So Dallas got out-gained and out-rushed by three of its last four opponents. The Cowboys are also just 1-3-1 ATS their last five times out because they nearly got beat by a three-win Houston team and blew a game at Jacksonville.
The Buccaneers, meanwhile, started 2-0 this season, with that win over Dallas, but lost five of its next six games to fall to 3-5. Tampa Bay then won two straight, including a game in Germany over Seattle, then lost three of four to fall back to 6-8. Fortunately for the Bucs, the rest of the NFC South stunk even worse, and back-to-back wins over Arizona and Carolina were enough to clinch the division crown. Tampa then closed its regular season last week with a meaningless 30-17 loss at Atlanta.
So the Buccaneers are back in the playoffs for the third straight season with Brady.
Tampa had nothing to play for last week, locked into its playoff seeding, but Brady played the first half, and the Bucs led 17-10 into the locker room. Tampa then sat starters and mailed it in from there.
These two teams have met each of the last two seasons, both Buccaneers victories. Last year Tampa won a wild early-season game 31-29; then, as mentioned above, the Buccaneers took the season opener this year 19-3.
Dallas actually drove the opening possession of that game back in September to a field goal, then got nothing else all night. The Bucs out-gained the Cowboys 347-244 and won the ground battle 152-71.
Also, that game played way under a total of 49, as the teams combined for less than 600 yards of total offense and a single touchdown.
Common Opponents
These two teams played three common opponents this season; the Bengals, Rams, and Packers. Dallas played those foes to 2-1 both SU and ATS and +2 yards per game, Tampa to 1-2 SU, 0-2-1 ATS but +82 YPG.
- Get more details: Dallas at Tampa Bay Wildcard Betting Stats
NFL Wild Card Betting Trends
Over the last five NFL wild-card rounds, the home teams are just 11-13 SU, 8-16 ATS.
Over the last five NFL wild-card rounds, the favorites are 13-11 SU, just 8-16 ATS.
Home dogs are 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS over the last five NFL wild-card rounds.
Dallas played 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS this season against teams that made the playoffs.
Tampa Bay played 2-4 both SU and ATS vs. playoff qualifiers.
Totals Report
- The Totals split 8-8 in Cowboys games this season, which averaged 48 total points.
- The Unders played 11-6 in Bucs games this season, which averaged 39 points.
- The Unders are 16-8 over the last five NFL wild-card rounds.
