dallas-cowboys-ezekiel-elliott-600_3

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles Free NFL Pick – Betting Odds

By Jeff Scott
Date: 31/12/2017 1:00 pm
Location: Lincoln Financial Field
TV: CBS

Betting Odds



Point Spread: Dallas -3
Total: 38.5

Dallas was eliminated from playoff contention with a 21-12 loss to Seattle last week. Philadelphia secured the No.1 seed in the NFC with a 19-10 victory over Oakland last Monday. The Eagles blew out the Cowboys 37-9 in Week 11.

The Cowboys offense struggled badly last week despite the return of RB Ezekiel Elliott from suspension. Dallas still averages 136 ypg on the ground and look for them to try to establish the run early. Philly does a great job of limiting runs to the outside but they can be vulnerable to power runs inside, a strength of the Cowboys. QB Dak Prescott hasn’t been nearly as efficient in 2017 as he was in 2016. His 21-13 TD/INT ratio is below average and he really had a hard time while Elliott was out. WR Dez Bryant leads the team in catches (66), yardage (815) and TD receptions (6) but he has had a subpar year by his standards. TE Jason Witten hasn’t been as effective either but the return of Elliott should open up the passing game. Dallas has given up 31 sacks while the Eagles have notched 33 sacks on the year. Their ability to cycle several different pass rushers could give the injury-depleted o-line some trouble.

Philadelphia’s offense wasn’t impressive in their win over the Raiders. QB Nick Foles had trouble hitting receivers even when they were wide open. He can’t move in the pocket like QB Carson Wentz and that was very evident last week. DE Demarcus Lawrence has 14.5 sacks on the year and look for him to get pressure on Foles. The Cowboys limit opponents to 218 passing ypg but need to get pressure on the QB to protect their back end. The Eagles average 136 ypg on the ground and will look to run the ball frequently. RB Jay Ajayi is the new starter and averages 5.8 ypc since he came to Philadelphia via trade. Dallas shut down the Seahawks running game last week (30-76) and will need to deal with Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount.

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Public Money

In this Week 17 of the NFL game matchup between Dallas and Philadelphia have the public leaning heavily to the Cowboys to cover the 3 point spread with over 70% on board. The over/under bettors are leaning by a margin of almost 2/1 that this game will stay under the total line of 38.5.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles Prediction

Despite getting the No.1 seed last week, I expect Foles to play a lot in this game as he needs more reps as the playoffs near. TE Zach Ertz has had a Pro Bowl year and WR Alshon Jeffery has had a decent first season with the club. However, I feel the Cowboys can pressure Foles into quick throws and maybe force a TO or two. Elliott is fresh and while Dallas’ playoff hopes are extinguished, they’ll want to finish the year with a winning record. The number seems to be a little low as the Eagles have topped this number in 12 of their 14 games in 2017. I think Dallas will bounce back with a solid game after a disappointing effort last Sunday and Elliott’s presence should open up the passing game.

Free Pick: Take the Over 38.5
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