Week 12 of this NFL season offers several excellent and important match-ups, including Sunday afternoon’s inter-conference bout between the NFC East-leading Cowboys and the AFC East-leading Patriots in Foxboro. Dallas is 3-1 against the spread over its last four games, while New England is 5-1 ATS over its last six. How are we playing this game with our free NFL pick?
NFL Betting Odds
Week 12’s NFL betting odds opened New England at -7 over Dallas, with an over/under of right around 47. Early betting action then dipped the Patriots to -6.5, and that total to 46.
Cowboys vs. Patriots Set-Up
Dallas is 3-1 both SU and ATS over its last four games, after winning at Detroit last week 35-27, covering as a seven-point favorite. The Cowboys spotted the Lions the first seven points of the game and trailed 14-10 in the second quarter but used a 25-7 run spanning the halves to take control, on their way to the victory and the money.
On the day Dallas out-gained Detroit 509-312, as quarterback Dak Prescott threw for 444 yards and three scores, without an interception. So the Cowboys have now out-gained each of their last six opponents and out-rushed four of their previous six foes.
At 6-4 overall, Dallas leads the NFC East by a game and a tie-breaker over second-place Philadelphia. However, the Cowboys trail Minnesota, which owns the second NFC wild-card spot at the moment, by a game and a half. So Dallas’ best chance of making the playoffs is probably to hold off the Eagles in the divisional race.
New England, meanwhile, just bounced back from that loss at Baltimore earlier this month to win at Philadelphia last week 17-10. The Patriots spotted the Eagles the first 10 points of the game, then scored the final 17 for the victory and the cover as favorites of 4.5 points.
On the day New England only produced 298 yards of total offense and one offensive touchdown. But the defense limited the Eagles to just 255 yards, a 3/14 performance on 3rd and 4th downs and one controversial touchdown.
The Patriots have now out-gained five of their last six opponents, but they’ve also been out-rushed each of their previous four games.
At 9-1 overall, New England leads the AFC East by two games and a tie-breaker over Buffalo. The Patriots also lead the AFC by one game over Baltimore, but the Ravens own the head-to-head tie-breaker on the Pats.
These two teams last met four seasons ago, a 30-6 Patriots victory in Texas. That made New England QB Tom Brady 4-0 in his career against the Cowboys.
NFL Betting Trends
- Dallas is 3-2 both SU and ATS on the road this season.
- Dallas is 38-20 SU, 31-24-3 ATS, with Dak Prescott as the starter at QB.
- Dallas is 1-3 both SU and ATS this season against teams at .500 or better right now.
- New England is 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS at home this season.
- New England is 2-1 ATS when favored by less than a touchdown this season.
- New England is 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS against teams at .500 or better right now.
Totals Report
Overs are 7-3 in Cowboys games this season, which are averaging 48 total points.
Unders are 7-3 in Patriots games this season, which are averaging 40 points.
Unders are 80-78 in the NFL this season.
- Get more details: Dallas at New England Betting Stats
