Cleveland Browns (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1 SU, 0-1-1 ATS)
Both the Browns and Buccaneers, with new head coaches, are working on building winning atmospheres, heading into their Week 3 exhibition bout Friday night in Tampa. Both teams’ starting quarterbacks have played sparingly so far this pre-season, but both should play a half or so Friday night. Who do we like here for our free NFL pick?
NFL Betting Odds
Week 3’s NFL exhibition betting odds opened Cleveland at around -2 over Tampa Bay, with an over/under of 43. Early betting action then bumped the Browns to -3 and dipped the total to 42.5.
Browns vs. Buccaneers Set-Up
Cleveland opened this 2019 exhibition season, its first under Coach Kitchens, with a 30-10 victory over Washington two weeks ago, then won at Indianapolis last Saturday 21-18. The Browns, with starter Baker Mayfield at quarterback, drove their opening possession against the Redskins 89 yards to a touchdown and later added scores on an interception return and a punt return, on their way to victory. Then they got a couple of touchdown passes from back-up QB Garrett Gilbert to build a 21-7 third-quarter lead against the Colts, and hung on from there.
Cleveland out-gained Washington 417-271, but then got out-gained by Indianapolis 382-271.
Mayfield played the one series against the Redskins, hit on 5/6 throws for 77 yards and a touchdown, but hasn’t played since. In his place back-ups Gilbert, David Blough, and Drew Stanton are a combined 41/68 passing for 483 yards and four touchdowns, without an interception.
We would expect Mayfield to play at least a quarter, maybe more, Friday night, before turning things over to the bullpen.
Tampa Bay opened its exhibition slate, its first under Coach Arians, with a 30-28 loss at Pittsburgh two weeks ago, then beat Miami last Friday 16-14. The Bucs, with starter Jameis Winston at QB, drove their opening possession against the Steelers 81 yards to a touchdown, later trailed 30-16, pulled to within two points with a score with 10 seconds to go but came up empty on the two-point conversion. Tampa then fell to the Dolphins 14-13 with 30 seconds left in the game but with Ryan Griffin at QB drove 45 yards in four plays to set up a game-winning field goal.
The Buccaneers out-gained Pittsburgh 479-339, then out-gained Miami 309-280.
Winston played one series in both those games, hitting on 7/10 throws for 64 yards and a touchdown. In relief, Griffin is 40/63 passing for 501 yards and two touchdowns, without a pick.
We expect Winston to play a half or so Friday, then turn things over to the back-ups.
These teams met most recently back in Week 7 of last season, a 26-23 Tampa overtime victory. The Bucs led that game 23-9 into the fourth quarter, let the Browns tie it with just over two minutes to go, then won it on a long field goal late in the extra period.
That game played under a total of 52 points.
NFL Betting Trends
Underdogs are 14-18 SU, 15-15-2 ATS so far this NFL exhibition season.
Totals Report
- Cleveland’s win over Washington two weeks ago played over a total of 35, while its win over Indianapolis last week played under a total of 42.
- Tampa’s loss to Pittsburgh two weeks ago played way over a total of 37, while the win over Miami played under a total of 42.
- Through two weeks of this NFL exhibition season, unders are 17-15.
- Get more details: Cleveland at Tampa Bay NFL Match-up Stats
