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Cleveland Browns at New York Jets Pick

By Cliff Knox
Date: 16/09/2019 8:15 pm
Location: MetLife Stadium
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds



Point Spread: Browns -2.5
Total: 46

Outlook for Monday Night Kickoff

Both the Browns and the Jets come into this Monday Night game losing their season openers. Many were on the Browns’ bandwagon to be a playoff contender this season, but they did not look like that in their home opener getting crushed by the Titans 43-13. Not much was expected from the Jets this season just improvement over the last one, and they looked like they were on their way to a win in Week 1 at home, but they could not hold a 16-point 3rd quarter lead losing to the Buffalo Bills 17-16.

The big news in this game is that 2nd year Jets’ QB Sam Darnold will not play, out with an illness and Trevor Siemian, who last had an NFL start in 2017 with the Denver Broncos, is slated to get the call for New York.

These teams met last season in Cincinnati where the Browns beat the Jets 21-17. The Jets had won their previous four games against the Browns dating back to the 2013 season, and the last three games between these AFC teams have been in Cleveland. The Browns could use a win in this Monday Night game with a killer schedule awaiting them facing the Rams, Ravens, Seahawks, and Patriots in four of their next five games.

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How the Public is Betting the Browns/Jets Game

The Browns opened as 3-point betting favorites for this game, but they have jumped to 6.5-point favorites as of Friday morning after it was announced Thursday that Darnold would not play. The opening total line for this game was offered at 46 points, and now it has dropped a couple of points to 44.

Injury Concerns

Browns:

Cleveland was banged up in the loss to the Titans, and OLB Adarius Taylor, SS Damarious Randall, TE Demetrius Harris, WR Rashard Higgins, LB Sione Takitaki, RB Dontrell Hilliard, and QB Baker Mayfield are all listed as questionable. Mayfield’s injury is a minor one, and while listed as questionable, he will play in this game.

Jets:

QB Sam Darnold did not practice on Wednesday due to illness, and it was recently revealed he has mono and will be out for this game. SS Jamal Adams, WR Demaryius Thomas, DT Quinnen Williams, and ILB C.J. Mosley are all listed as questionable with injuries for this Monday Night game.

When the Browns Have the Ball

The Browns need better play from Mayfield and the offensive line for this game after the QB had three INT and was sacked five times in the loss to Tennessee. He passed for 285 yards with a TD, and Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry combined for 138 receiving yards. While the Browns lost big, the game was close until late, as all three of Mayfield’s interceptions came in the 4th quarter. Cleveland rushed for 102 yards, and Nick Chubb rushed for 75 of them and averaged 4.4 yards per carry. Mayfield was taken down five times last week against Tennessee and faces a New York pass rush that only had one sack in their loss to the Bills in Week 1.

When the Jets Have the Ball

In the Jets loss to the Bills last week they were outscored 14-0 in the 4th quarter. Darnold passed for 175 yards with a TD and was not intercepted, and Jamison Crowder had 99 receiving yards while the next leading target in Le’Veon Bell only had 32 receiving yards. Bell was the big-name addition in the off-season, and in his first game in a Jets’ uniform, he rushed for 60 yards averaging 3.5 yards per carry to go along with his six catches for 32 receiving yards. New York’s offense failed to find a rhythm in the loss to the Bills last week, and it remains to be seen if they will lean on Bell to give them that in this AFC matchup. This may be especially the case with Siemian under center.

Betting Trends

The Browns covered the spread in last season’s home win against the Jets, and the favorite has covered the spread in the previous nine games between these teams. The Jets had covered in five straight games against the Browns before failing to do so last season on the road. While back at home the Jets were 0-5-1 ATS in their previous six home games and did not cover in Week 1 at home in the loss to the Bills. Cleveland is 2-6 ATS in their last eight Monday Night games, and they have not covered in eight of their last ten games after suffering a double-digit loss at home in their previous game.

Weather Report

The weather in the Big Apple is forecast to be decent on Monday Night with the temperature in the mid-60s with a light breeze.

Browns at Jets Prediction 9/16/19

I was all set to jump on the Jets as a small home dog before the Sam Darnold mono report surfaced. The Jets do have some weapons on offense and while that may not have been apparent last week against an under-rated Bills defense. What was evident was that improvement is needed on the defensive side of the ball. Buffalo’s offense scored only 17 points, but they out-yarded the Jets by nearly 150 yards and could have lit the scoreboard up if they were a little more careful with the ball (-3 turnovers). The Browns offense managed just 13 points with Mayfield (3 INTs) and the offensive line (5 sacks allowed) having sub-par performances. I like the chances to improve with a less than ferocious pass rush of this week’s opponent who managed just one sack last week. Trevor Siemian behind center doesn’t strike fear into defenses at least not at the pro level, but he back in 2017 he showed that he can be an adequate starter. With the O/U line down to 44 points, we don’t need either team to light it up. A 28 -17 type game gets us the money.

Free Pick: Take the OVER 44
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