The Tennessee Titans somewhat surprisingly won the top seed in the AFC playoffs and now look to take
advantage of it when they host the Bengals for a divisional-round bout Saturday afternoon in
Nashville. Tennessee started well enough this season, then played through the absence of running
back Derrick Henry. Now it appears Henry will return for this game. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is
coming off its first postseason victory in 30 years! The Titans are favored by three and a hook
for this one; how are we playing this game with our free NFL playoffs betting pick?
NFL Playoff Betting Lines
The NFL playoff betting odds opened Tennessee as a three-point home favorite for
this game, with an over/under of right around 47. Early betting action then bumped the Titans to
-3.5, and that total to 47.5. According to Sagarin’s NFL ratings at sagarin.com, Tennessee
should be favored by three points for this match-up. Bengals-Titans NFL Playoffs Betting Preview
Cincinnati reached this AFC divisional round by holding off the Raiders in a wild-card game last
week 26-19. The Bengals spotted Las Vegas an early field goal but used a 13-0 run to lead 20-13
at the half.
Cincinnati then scored the first three points of the second half, let the Raiders
get back within one score with three minutes left but held on for the victory and the cover as a
six-point favorite. In the end, the Bengals allowed Vegas to drive to the Cincinnati 9-yard line
but held on four downs. The Bengals actually got out-gained by the Raiders 385-308 and out-rushed
103-83 but won the turnover battle 2-0, turning one takeaway into a field goal, then sealing the
game with the other. A few weeks ago, Cincinnati clinched its playoff spot with a three-game
winning streak, then lost a meaningless game to Cleveland in the regular-season finale. But the
Bengals are not running the ball as they should. Over their last six games, they’ve been
out-rushed five times, averaging just 83 yards per. And that’s an alarming trend for playoff
football. Tennessee, meanwhile, reached this divisional round by going 12-5 this season to earn
the top seed in the AFC.
The Titans then enjoyed last week off. Tennessee started 2-2 this
season, then won six in a row. But they also lost Henry along the way. The Titans later struggled
through a 1-3 stretch but won their last three games, including a 28-25 decision at Houston two
weeks ago. And with a bit of help from elsewhere, Tennessee owns home-field advantage for these
AFC playoffs. The Titans scored the first 21 points of the game against the Texans, allowed that
lead to leak to three points in the fourth quarter held on for the win but pissed away the cover
as 11-point favorites. Tennessee out-gained Houston that day 405-353, out-rushed the Texans
124-64, and won the time of possession by a 34:26 split.
So the Titans out-gained four of their last five opponents and out- rushed each of their last seven foes, even without Henry. Tennessee
lost Henry when he broke a bone in his foot back on Halloween. The Titans struggled on the ground
for their next couple of games, then found their footing and averaged 155 YPG rushing over their
last seven games. And now it looks like Henry will return. These two teams met most recently back
in November of last season, a 31-20 Cincinnati home win. The Bengals led that game 10-0 early and
24-7 early in the fourth quarter, on their way toward victory. Also, that game played over a
total of 49.5 when the teams combined for 27 fourth-quarter points.
Common Opponents
These two teams played five common opponents this season; the Jets,
Jaguars, Chiefs, Steelers, and 49ers. Tennessee played 4-2 both SU and ATS vs. those five foes,
at +23 yards per game, while Cincinnati played 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS, and -2 YPG against that slate of
opponents.
NFL Playoffs Betting Trends
Over the last six NFL divisional playoff rounds, the home
teams are 19-5 SU, 14-9-1 ATS. Over the last six NFL divisional playoff rounds, the favorites are
18-6 SU, 13-10-1 ATS. Cincinnati is 5-2, both SU and ATS against teams that made the playoffs
this season. Tennessee is 4-3, both SU and ATS against teams that made the playoff this season.
Totals Report
The Under is 9-8 in Bengals games this season, which averaged 49 total
points. Last week’s game against the Raiders then played under a total of 49. The Under is 9-8
in Titans games this season, which averaged 45 points. The Under was 4-2 in the NFL playoffs last
week.
