Cincinnati clinched a playoff berth with last Sunday’s 24-14 victory against San Francisco as a seven-point road favorite. It is now 11-3 straight-up on the year with a highly profitable 11-2-1 record against the spread. The Bengals have covered in four of their last five games with the total staying UNDER in six of their last eight contests.
The Bengals were rolling towards one of the top two playoff spots in the AFC until a broken finger knocked quarterback Andy Dalton out of the lineup for the final three regular season games. In his place, AJ McCarron managed the game well against the 49ers with 192 passing yards and one touchdown throw while completing 15-of-21 attempts. I would look for Cincinnati to take the same conservative approach in Denver behind a ground game that is averaging 110.9 yards a game.
Denver is starting to really feel the heat from red-hot Kansas City in the AFC West Division race after dropping a tight 34-27 decision to Pittsburgh last Sunday as a seven-point road underdog. The 10-4 Broncos are now clinging to a one-game lead as a result of a shaky 3-4 SU record over their last seven games. They have gone 2-4-1 ATS over this same stretch with the total going an even 3-3-1.
The quarterback situation has also been an issue in Denver. An ineffective and injured Peyton Manning gave way to Brock Osweiler a few weeks back and after a promising start, the four-vet has started to bend with the pressure of this tight playoff race. He has thrown for 1,436 yards and eight touchdowns in six games this season, but his team’s record during his tenure under center is just 3-3. This Monday night, the Broncos might have to once again rely heavily on a defense that is ranked first in the NFL against both the pass and the run while holding teams to just 18.5 points a game.
The Bengals are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 AFC games and they are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games. The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of their last 14 games played on the road.
The Broncos are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games in December, but they have failed to cover in six of their last seven Monday night games. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last seven games at home.
Head-to-head in this conference tilt, the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and the total has gone OVER in four of those games.
