Cincinnati played one of their best games of the season last Sunday, blowing out Philadelphia 32-14. Cleveland had a bye last week and is winless at 0-12.
The Bengals’ offense finally erupted last week but had been dormant the previous 3 weeks (46 points). RB Jeremy Hill ran for 168 yards in the first matchup between these two clubs and while the Browns’ run defense has been better in the second half of the year, they still yield 140 ypg. With the expected absence of WR A.J. Green, look for the Cleveland defense to try to gang up on the run as no one receiver on the Bengals has near the talent level of Green. QB Andy Dalton had a big game last week but still has only 14 TD passes on the year. He has fumbled the ball 8 times (losing 3) and been sacked 32 times. The Browns have only 17 sacks on the year so they may blitz against an o-line that clearly has had issues with pass blocking.
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Cleveland’s offense has produced 4 TDs over the past 4 games and is averaging 9.8 ppg over that span. They average only 90 ypg on the ground but lead back Isaiah Crowell is averaging 4.2 ypc. Look for him to get more carries to take the pressure off of whoever is under center this week. The Bengals allow 4.3 ypc and 115 ypg on the ground and for this offense to have any success; they need to establish the run. As for the QB position, reports have Robert Griffin III ready to return to the lineup. Or it could be Cody Kessler or even Josh McCown. At this stage it probably doesn’t matter. Six different players have taken snaps at QB this year and they have combined to produce a 13-12 TD/INT ratio and a QB rating of 77.8. WR Terrell Pryor has had a breakout season as a wideout and leads the team with 62 catches, 855 receiving yards and 4 receiving TDs. He will draw a lot of attention from the defense, who have had their problems in pass defense (251 ypg, only 22 sacks). Cincinnati has picked off 14 passes and their corners like to gamble. The Browns o-line is a patchwork affair and outside of LT Joe Thomas, they are an underwhelming group.
Public Money Consensus
In this week’s NFL matchup between Cincinnati and Cleveland the public is leaning heavily to the Bengals covering the 5 point spread with 85%. The over/under bettors are more evenly split with just a slight lean to this game going over the 43.5 point line at 56%.
