Just as with the NFC, the two best teams in the AFC meet in the conference championship game when the Chiefs host the Bengals Sunday evening at Arrowhead. This contest is a rematch of last year’s classic AFC title tilt and of another great game from earlier this season, both Cincinnati victories. In fact, the Bengals with Joe Burrow at quarterback are 3-0 against KC with Patrick Mahomes. Can they make it four straight? This game is lined as basically a pick ‘em; who do we like for our free AFC championship game betting pick?
AFC Championship Game Betting Lines
The AFC championship game betting odds opened Kansas City as a two-point favorite, with an over/under of right around 48.5. Early betting action then dipped the Chiefs to -1. According to Sagarin’s NFL ratings at USAToday.com, KC should be favored by a point and a half for this match-up.
AFC Championship Game Betting Preview
Cincinnati reached this AFC championship game by beating Buffalo in a divisional-round game in the snow last Saturday 27-10. The Bengals, playing as five-point underdogs, scored the first 14 points of the game and led 17-7 at the half. Cincinnati let the Bills get within 17-10 in the third quarter but blanked ‘em from there while tacking on 10 points to secure the victory.
The Bengals out-gained Buffalo 412-325, made 30 first downs, out-rushed the Bills 172-64, and won the time of possession 34:26. In all, a dominating performance. The Bengals opened their playoff run two weeks ago with a somewhat lackluster 24-17 wild-card victory over Baltimore. Cincinnati was on the verge of falling down by a touchdown to the Ravens in the fourth quarter but got a flukey 98-yard defensive score and held on from there. The
Bengals got out-played by Baltimore that day but found a way to win. Now they’re one win away from a return trip to the Super Bowl. Kansas City reached this AFC championship game by beating Jacksonville in a divisional-round bout last Saturday, 27-20. The Chiefs drove its first possession of the game 83 yards to a touchdown and led 17-10 at the half. KC later allowed the Jaguars to get within 20-17 early in the fourth quarter but immediately drove 75 yards to an insurance score and held on from there. However, a Jacksonville field goal with 25 seconds left cost the Chiefs the cover as 7.5-point favorites.
Kansas City out-gained Jacksonville 362-349, dominated time of possession 35:25, and won the turnover battle 2-0. The Chiefs didn’t have to play on wild-card weekend because they went 14-3 during the regular season to earn a bye. The really big news to come out of last week’s game was Patrick Mahomes’ nasty ankle injury. Mahomes left the game for about an hour but returned in the second half and finished, although it was clear he was hurting. He’ll play Sunday, but he may well be hobbled.
Kansas City’s actually been one of the worst bets in the League this season, going 5-12-1 vs. the numbers. Also, on the injury front, Cincinnati played down three starters along the O-line last week, which might be the case this week, too. But that unit helped the Bengals run for 172 yards against the Bills while allowing just one sack over 36 pass attempts.
Bengals-Chiefs Recent History
These teams have already met three times over the last 13 months, all Cincinnati victories. Back late last season, the Bengals won 34-31 on a field goal at the buzzer. Then four weeks later, Cincinnati won the AFC championship game at Arrowhead Stadium 27-24 in overtime. Then back in Week 13 of this season, the Bengals came from behind in the fourth quarter to beat KC again 27-24. So that makes Burrow 3-0 against Mahomes. Also, that first meeting played over a total of 51, but the other two played under totals of 54 and 53.
- Get more details: AFC Title Game 1/29/23 Betting Stats
NFL Playoffs Betting Trends
Including last week’s win/cover, the Bengals are now 6-2 SU 5-2-1 ATS this season against teams that made the playoffs. Including last week’s win/non-cover Kansas City is now 7-2 SU but 3-5-1 ATS against playoff qualifiers this season. Over the last five championship rounds of the playoffs, the home teams – the higher seeds – are 6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS.
Totals Report
- The Unders played 9-6 in Bengals games this season, which averaged 46 total points.
- The Unders played 9-8 in Chiefs games this season, which averaged 51 points.
- The Overs played 4-2 during the wild-card round of these playoffs, but the Unders played 4-0 during the divisional round.
- Over the last five championship rounds, the Overs are 6-4.
