After missing the playoffs last season, the Bears and Rams are both in the running for postseason spots this season, heading into their Monday night match-up out in Inglewood. Chicago is a game better than Los Angeles at the moment, but the Rams are favored by almost a full touchdown. How are we playing this game with our free NFL pick?
NFL Betting Odds
Week 7 NFL betting odds opened the Rams at -6.5 over the Bears, with an over/under of 46. Early betting action then dipped LA to -6 and that total to 45.
Bears vs. Rams Set-Up
Chicago is off to a 5-1 start to this season, after beating the Panthers in Carolina last week 23-16. The Bears turned an early takeaway into a touchdown, led 13-6 at the half, then scored the first seven points out of the locker room and held on from there for the outright victory as two-point dogs.
On the day Chicago actually got out-gained by the Panthers 303-261 and lost the ground battle 112-63. But the Bears also won the turnover battle 3-1, creating a +4 points differential, twice held Carolina to very short field goals out of 1st-and-goal situations, made a key defensive stop on a fourth down in their own territory with two minutes left, and secured the win with an interception on the Panthers’ final drive.
Chicago has only out-gained two of its six opponents this season and also only out-rushed two of six foes. Nonetheless, at 5-1 overall, the Bears lead the NFC North by a half-game over second-place Green Bay.
Los Angeles, meanwhile, is 4-2 after falling at San Francisco last Sunday night 24-16. The Rams allowed the 49ers to drive three of their first four possessions of the game 76, 87, and 75 yards to touchdowns and trailed 21-6 at the half. Los Angeles later pulled to within one score with three minutes left but couldn’t get the ball back and lost outright as a favorite of 2.5 points.
On the day, LA got out-gained by San Francisco 390-311 and lost the time of possession by a 38:22 split. The Rams also missed an extra point and threw an interception on a 4th-and-goal from the Niners’ 2-yard line at a critical point in the third quarter.
They didn’t do it last week, but Los Angeles has out-gained and out-rushed four of its six opponents this season.
At 4-2 overall, the Rams are tied with Arizona for second place in the NFC West, a game and a half behind division-leading Seattle.
These two teams have played one common opponent so far this season; back in Week 2, Chicago beat the Giants 17-13, out-gaining New York 304-295, while in Week 4, Los Angeles beat the Giants 17-9 but got out-gained 295-240.
These teams have also met each of the last two seasons; the Bears beat the Rams 15-6 in 2018, but LA beat Chicago last year 17-7. Both those games played way under their totals.
NFL Betting Trends
- Chicago QB Nick Foles is 29-23 SU, 22-29-1 ATS as an NFL starter.
- Chicago is 25-13 SU, 20-18 ATS in two-plus seasons under Coach Nagy.
- LA is 37-16 SU, 29-22-2, with the coach/QB combo of McVay and Jared Goff.
- Home teams are only 47-43 SU, 40-49 ATS in the NFL this season.
- Favorites are 59-31 SU but only 40-49 ATS in the NFL this season.
Totals Report
- Unders are 4-2 in Bears games this season, which are averaging 41 total points against an average over/under of 44.
- Unders are also 4-2 in Rams games this season, which are averaging 44 points against an average O/U of 48.
- Overs are 48-42 in the NFL this season.
- Get more details: CHI/LAR Week 7 Match-up Stats
