Green Bay clings to a division lead, but Chicago is hot, heading into the 198th edition of Bears-Packers Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field. Green Bay beat Chicago earlier this season as an underdog, but it’s favored by better than a field goal for this one. Who do we like here for our free NFL pick?
NFL Betting Odds
Week 15’s NFL betting odds opened Green Bay at -4.5 over Chicago, with an over/under of right around 41. Both those figures were holding steady in early betting action.
Bears vs. Packers Set-Up
Chicago looked about dead a few weeks ago but suddenly has won three straight, after beating Dallas last Thursday night 31-24. The Bears, as three-point home dogs, spotted the Cowboys the first seven points of the game, then used a 24-0 run spanning the halves to take control. Chicago later gave up the last ten meaningless points of the game to create a slightly misleading final score.
On the night, the Bears out-rushed Dallas 151-82 and got four total touchdowns from quarterback Mitch Trubisky.
Two weeks ago, Chicago came from behind to win at Detroit 24-20, and three weeks ago, the Bears defeated the Giants 19-14.
After struggling most of this season offensively, Chicago is averaging 379 yards per game over its last three games.
At 7-6 overall, the Bears trail first-place Green Bay by three games in the NFC North, and they’re two games behind Minnesota in the battle for the second NFC wild-card spot. So it’s basically do-or-die time for Chicago, as far as the playoffs are concerned.
The Packers, meanwhile, are 2-0 since looking terrible in that loss out at San Francisco three weeks ago. Green Bay then beat the Giants in New Jersey 31-13, and last week held off Washington 20-15.
The Packers jumped out to a 14-0 first-quarter lead on the Redskins last week and held on from there. But they didn’t cover as 13-point favorites.
Green Bay ran the ball for 174 yards on Washington, although that iffy Packers defense gave up 121 yards on the ground.
At 10-3 overall, the Packers lead the NFC North by one game over second-place Minnesota. Green Bay also owns the No. 2 spot in the NFC playoff standings, one game behind the top-seeded 49ers and only a conference tie-breaker ahead of No. 3 New Orleans. So the Packers are only a slip-up or two away from trouble, as far as the playoffs are concerned.
Bears-Packers Recent History
Green Bay owns the upper hand in the recent rivalry with Chicago, winning six of the last seven meetings SU, going 4-3 ATS along the way. Most recently, back in Week 1 of this season, the Packers beat the Bears 10-3 at Soldier Field.
Green Bay spotted Chicago the first three points of that game, then scored the final 10 for the victory. The Bears had a chance to tie the game late, but Trubisky threw a bad interception in the Packers’ end zone with two minutes to go.
Green Bay won outright that night as a three-point dog, and the game played way under a total of 47, as the teams combined for just 467 yards of total offense.
NFL Betting Trends
- Chicago is 3-3 SU, 1-5 ATS on the road this season.
- Chicago is 22-16 SU, 20-16-2 ATS with Trubisky at QB.
- Green Bay is 6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS at home this season.
- The underdog is 5-3 ATS over the last eight meetings in this series, with six of those games decided by seven points or less.
Totals Report
- Unders are 8-5 in Bears games this season, which are averaging just 37 total points.
- Unders are 7-6 in Packers games this season, which are averaging 45 points.
- Through the first 14 weeks of this NFL betting season, unders are 105-98, as games are averaging 45 points.
- Get more details: Chicago at Green Bay NFL Match-up Stats
