The Chicago Bears come to Lambeau Field for a Week 12 NFC North showdown with the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football. The Bears had last week off, which they are hoping put a little wind into their sails after four straight losses, their last being a 19-13 loss to the Vikings. After a good start to the season, they find themselves on the brink. Going into Lambeau isn’t always the best medicine for that, as they take on a Packers team that will be looking to atone for a painful overtime loss to the Colts last week, 34-31. They’re still in good shape at 7-3 and leading the NFC North, but this would be a bad time to start slacking off. At home and probably irritated after perhaps giving away a big win against Indy, they could be tough in this spot.
Hard to Get Behind the Bears
That offense really stinks. Nick Foles has only been so-so. Allen Robinson is a receiver who has nice numbers, but you have to see him week in and week out to really appreciate how small of an actual impact he usually makes on games. Thirty receptions help, but David Montgomery in the lead back role isn’t working out. It’s not solely the fault of players at the skill positions, as this offensive line has at times been abysmal in recent weeks. But now Foles is banged-up, as is Montgomery. So this bye week was at least timely, the first break the Bears have caught in a while.
It’s not like a team with low offensive output can’t grind out wins, but this Chicago defense isn’t as good as it used to be. Allowing just 20.9 points a game with this offense stringing them out time and again isn’t bad. But for this formula to work, they would need to be iron-clad, and they’re simply not. And even if they were, it would still be a grind because as of late, the offense hasn’t simply been bad—it’s been ugly to watch and probably painful for bettors who see one drive after another end with no payoff.
Silver Lining for the Bears
While their situation looks dire, some results suggest that one should be cautious about going against Chicago. Their last three losses were all of the one-score variety. They took the Saints to overtime a few weeks back, also losing by a TD to Tennessee. Sure, their wins are against teams like Detroit, the Giants, Atlanta, and Carolina, but there’s also a win over Tampa in the mix. In other words, their bottom-line results haven’t been as bad as their predicament would suggest, even if they haven’t been very productive at the betting windows of late. With a defense that can still apply pressure on the QB, along with their playmaking ability, they generally keep opponents from running completely rampant on them.
Packers Cracking Slightly?
It’s clear they’ve taken a small step back from what we saw about a month ago, with the loss to Indy, a way too-close-for-comfort win over the Jags, and a home loss to the Vikes several weeks back. But I wouldn’t be so quick to downrate the Packers just yet, as some misfortune and bad twists have poisoned some of their recent results. I think this is a part of the season where the Packers sense their predicament and kick it up a notch. And when Aaron Rodgers has a heightened sense of urgency, it might be enough to put this a little out of reach for the Bears.
It didn’t work out last Sunday, but the health of their offense is in pretty good shape, giving them that nice depth that has been a staple of head coach Matt LaFleur’s success in his second season at the helm. With Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams in the backfield, along with a pass-catching crew that boasts of a legit star in Devante Adams and instrumental role-guys like Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Robert Tonyan, Allen Lazard, and others, it’s a lot to contain. Indy had some success with their defense last week. Maybe the Bears can too. But to what extent?
Can Green Bay Defense Control the Game?
It would be a stretch to call the Packers’ defense a good one. They have some good players and are fairly stout, though they struggle in spots, namely against good offenses, and more alarmingly, late in games—something we saw last week. But when going against teams that don’t have their act together, we see strong results—16 points for Atlanta, 20 for Houston and Jacksonville, and 17 for San Francisco. What can one expect to see from a road Bears’ offense this week? In the last seven games, their high-point total is 23. Three times in that span, it was 11 or less.
Take the Home Favorite
For those going with Chicago, I get it. Their tough defense will keep this a grind, and maybe the Packers have slipped almost imperceptibly to make this the kind of game where having the points is a good thing. That could very well play out, but I see the other perspective having more possibilities and upside. In the end, the avenue to a cover is just so much narrower when the offense you’re backing is almost guaranteed to be facing an uphill battle. I see the Bears struggling to put up points, as the Packers pull away for the win and cover at home this week.
Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Green Bay Packers minus 8.5 points.
- Get more details: Chicago at Green Bay Week 12 Match-up Stats
